Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have dipped to test the lower edge of the consolidation zone. While this may seem like a shift in trend, we maintain a cautiously bullish bias. The MACD is showing rising selling volume, and the RSI remains neutral—indicating that consolidation is likely to persist unless a clean break below support occurs.
On the fundamental side, optimism surrounding US-China trade talks has dampened demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Upcoming meetings this weekend are fueling expectations for progress. Meanwhile, the announcement of a US-UK trade agreement further alleviated global trade concerns. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but emphasized risks tied to inflation and unemployment, suggesting a more cautious stance going forward. Chair Powell noted that preemptive rate cuts are unlikely, further cooling gold’s appeal in the short term.
SILVER
Silver mirrors gold’s trajectory with slowing momentum. The MACD shows increasing bearish volume, and RSI is indecisive, reflecting a lack of conviction. With price action hovering near support levels, we anticipate continued consolidation unless global economic optimism strengthens further. A breakout or breakdown will be key for future direction.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar has surged amid growing confidence in trade progress and the Fed’s commitment to holding rates steady. This shift has propelled the market toward a more hawkish tone. Both MACD and RSI confirm the strength of this move, with bullish momentum building and price breaking past recent consolidation levels. We expect continued upside for the Dollar in the short term.
GBP/USD
The Pound fell sharply following the US-UK trade deal and dovish BoE sentiment. While some policymakers advocated for more aggressive easing, the broader tone reflects economic concern. The MACD trends lower, and the RSI shows steady downward movement, reinforcing a bearish outlook for GBP/USD.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar broke below a key level at 0.64086, marking a shift to a more aggressive bearish phase. The MACD displays rising bearish volume, and the RSI confirms strong selling pressure. Although slightly overextended, the downward momentum remains firm. We anticipate continued selling unless fundamentals change dramatically.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi followed suit with a decisive break below 0.59400. Both MACD and RSI show solid bearish momentum, confirming the breakdown. The sharp reversal aligns with the broader bearish shift anticipated after breaching key support. Short positions remain favorable in the near term.
EUR/USD
The Euro finally broke beneath its long-standing consolidation zone. Accelerating selling pressure and bearish confirmation in both MACD and RSI signal a valid trend reversal. We are actively seeking short setups in this pair as downside potential grows.
USD/JPY
The Yen weakened significantly as the Dollar regained strength. Technicals confirm this shift, with MACD showing bullish volume and RSI trending upward. With trade optimism fueling Dollar sentiment, we expect continued gains for USD/JPY.
USD/CHF
The Franc is also losing ground, as global trade worries ease. Market focus has returned to macro fundamentals and trade policy developments. The MACD and RSI reflect increasing bullish momentum, and we anticipate additional gains for USD/CHF as confidence in the Dollar solidifies.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar fell sharply after breaking its recent consolidation range. Renewed openness from the U.S. toward China boosted the Dollar, weighing on the CAD. Both MACD and RSI support a continued bullish Dollar trend, and we expect this pair to maintain upward momentum unless oil markets or CAD-specific data reverse the trend.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (2/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – STRONG (2/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (2/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold and silver are feeling the pressure as trade optimism and Fed policy clarity reduce the demand for safe havens. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar is gaining strength, confirmed by breakouts across major pairs like USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF. Commodity currencies such as AUD and NZD are turning sharply bearish after breaking key supports. As traders, it’s essential to adjust strategies accordingly—monitoring long-term forex trading setups, volatility analysis, and forex pair correlation to navigate the shifting landscape.