Market Overview
This week, the financial markets will be driven by several key reports: the US Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Australian CPI on Wednesday, US prelim GDP and unemployment claims on Thursday, and the US Core PCE Price Index, Canadian GDP, and European German Preliminary CPI m/m on Friday.
Amid these economic updates, increasing concerns over tariff developments and inflation risks continue to shape market sentiment. Analysts speculate that the Federal Reserve (FED) may delay interest rate cuts, strengthening the US Dollar while reducing the appeal of gold and other major and minor currency pairs.
Tariff Developments & Global Impact
Auto, Pharmaceutical, and Semiconductor Tariffs
President Trump has signaled a 25% tariff on car imports, alongside significant levies on pharmaceutical products and semiconductor chips, set to take effect by April 2, 2025.
Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
Existing Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum have been expanded, with aluminum tariffs increasing from 10% to 25%, effective March 12, 2025.
Tariffs on Canada & Mexico
New 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have been temporarily suspended until March 4, 2025.
China Tariffs
A 10% tariff on all imports from China took effect on February 4, 2025, prompting China’s retaliatory measures.
Reciprocal Tariffs Strategy
A new reciprocal tariff plan was outlined on February 13, 2025, aiming to match foreign tariff rates on US exports, with detailed policies expected by April 2025.
With ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, uncertainties around these tariffs could shift policy timelines, especially as the situation escalates.
Market Analysis & Trading Opportunities
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold prices have struggled to surpass previous highs, indicating hesitation among traders. However, rising inflation concerns and tariff-related risks could fuel demand for gold as a hedge against multiple currencies.
If interest rates remain high, gold’s appeal could weaken, leading to short-term forex gains for the US Dollar and a potential price drop for gold. However, long-term price action forecasting remains bullish, as investors look for stability amid market volatility.
Silver (XAG/USD)
If gold stalls, silver may follow suit, particularly if USD strength persists. Indicators such as the MACD and RSI are flashing bearish signals, with silver trading near the EMA200 and 32.5177 support level.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Despite inflation concerns, the US Dollar remains resilient. Traders are awaiting inflation reports to assess the FED’s next moves. Currently, technical indicators suggest a potential short-term bounce, but the overall bearish trend remains intact.
GBP/USD – British Pound
The Pound Sterling is showing bullish momentum, bouncing off 1.26163, with the MACD indicating further upside potential. However, RSI overbought conditions signal that a consolidation phase may be approaching.
AUD/USD – Australian Dollar
The Aussie Dollar continues its bullish trajectory, trading above the EMA200 and 0.63407. Though the MACD has not yet confirmed an uptrend, forex scalping automation strategies could benefit from instant forex entry points in this market phase.
NZD/USD – New Zealand Dollar
The Kiwi Dollar remains bullish, rebounding from a key support level. Indicators show muted selling volume, while RSI oversold conditions suggest further upside potential.
EUR/USD – Euro
The Euro has broken out of consolidation, indicating further bullish potential due to Dollar weakness. However, MACD confirmation is still pending, while RSI suggests possible short-term consolidation before the next move.
USD/JPY – Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen extends its bearish trend, with the MACD crossing downward and RSI showing overbought levels. Selling pressure remains dominant, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.
USD/CHF – Swiss Franc
The Swiss Franc is gaining ground against the Dollar, with MACD approaching a bearish cross. RSI remains steady despite falling prices, suggesting that momentum is building for a further decline.
USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar
The CAD is currently in consolidation, with bearish bias still intact. Price rejection at higher levels suggests that traders are awaiting a clearer trend signal before entering positions.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Analysis
| Currency | Strength Rating (1-5) |
| AUD | WEAK (3/5) |
| GBP | WEAK (1/5) |
| CAD | WEAK (4/5) |
| EUR | WEAK (3/5) |
| JPY | STRONG (5/5) |
| CHF | WEAK (5/5) |
| USD | STRONG (5/5) |
| NZD | WEAK (5/5) |
| GOLD | STRONG (4/5) |
| SILVER | STRONG (5/5) |