COT Market Sentiment
Weekly COT reports continue to offer directional insight into trader sentiment, which is vital for any structured forex trading approach. Here’s this week’s sentiment summary:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – WEAK (5/5)
- NZD – STRONG (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
While these show strong biases, the recent reintroduction of trade tariffs has disrupted many technical expectations. Effective swing trading risk management is more crucial than ever.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold faced rejection at its upper boundary and is now leaning bearish amid renewed tariff concerns. The MACD reflects rising selling volume, and the RSI signals overbought conditions with potential for normalization. While the market may pivot bullish if tariffs spiral into a global economic threat, for now, the structure remains bearish. Traders should rely on a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator before shorting or hedging, especially ahead of high-risk events.
SILVER
Silver holds potential for bullish continuation, supported by the EMA200. The MACD and RSI confirm rising buying momentum. Despite the consolidation zone, the bias favors a slow move upward. This setup demands tight forex swing entry and exit points to capitalize on smaller intraday opportunities while staying flexible in case of breakout volatility.
DXY
The U.S. Dollar Index broke resistance, shifting structure bullish. Monday’s rally was supported by easing Fed rate cut expectations and stronger NFP data. However, Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on key countries, and his extended deadline to August 1, now clouds Dollar strength with policy risk. The MACD and RSI remain strong, but further moves should be managed with an optimal risk to reward ratio due to elevated uncertainty.
GBPUSD
The Pound is still consolidating, lacking clear direction. Until a breakout confirms, any trade should be minimal and tightly controlled. This is a scenario where managing losses in forex swing trades is essential, as false breakouts are likely in range-bound conditions.
AUDUSD
The Aussie plunged following renewed trade war fears. As a risk-sensitive currency, AUD/USD broke key structures and now trades bearish. MACD and RSI confirm the drop. If prices fail to bounce from the EMA200, deeper downside is likely. This is an ideal spot to use a structured forex trading approach, where tight stop placement and calculated entry size matter most.
NZDUSD
NZD/USD followed the Aussie, shifting bearish as trade tension escalates. MACD and RSI both support selling pressure. Though the pair was previously bullish, the shift in sentiment warrants reassessment. Traders should apply a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator and prepare for further downside until tariffs are resolved.
EURUSD
The Euro shows resilience despite USD strength, still respecting its bullish structure above the EMA200. RSI and MACD remain neutral. Although the setup hints at a continuation, the consolidation phase reduces clarity. Until a break occurs, emphasize swing trading risk management and wait for volume confirmation.
USDJPY
The Yen is weakening, with USD/JPY rising after Japan was included in the new 25% tariff list. MACD and RSI both indicate bullish volume. If the pair breaks and holds above 145.196, a structural shift to bullish continuation is confirmed. Risk-sensitive traders should mark this level as a key forex swing entry point for trend-based setups.
USDCHF
USD/CHF is testing the EMA200, consolidating as investors weigh short-term Dollar strength versus the Franc’s safe-haven status. MACD shows mild bearish interest, and RSI is near overbought. Price may consolidate or drop depending on broader risk sentiment. This environment is ideal for deploying swing trading risk management tactics that include staged entries or optionality.
USDCAD
USD/CAD is reversing upward as the CAD weakens, partly due to commodity pressures and risk aversion. MACD and RSI both reflect bullish energy, and EMA200 acts as dynamic support. While not a confirmed shift yet, bullish continuation is likely if price holds above the 1.36612 level. Traders should define their forex swing entry and exit points now in anticipation of further strength.
Final Thoughts
Tariff tensions have reintroduced volatility across global markets. Whether you’re trading Gold’s rejection, the Aussie’s drop, or Yen weakness, having a sound swing trading risk management plan is more important than ever. Use tools like a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator to verify that each position offers an optimal risk to reward ratio, especially when sentiment can shift overnight. Most importantly, practice managing losses in forex swing trades—because when policy and price collide, your edge lies in preparation, not prediction. Visit: https://worldquestfx.com/