COT Reports Analysis
AUD – WEAK (5/5)
GBP – STRONG (3/5)
CAD – WEAK (3/5)
EUR – STRONG (5/5)
JPY – STRONG (5/5)
CHF – WEAK (5/5)
USD – WEAK (5/5)
NZD – STRONG (5/5)
GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold’s sharp drop followed Friday’s surprise rise in U.S. Core PCE inflation, delaying hopes of Fed rate cuts. MACD and RSI now both signal stronger bearish momentum, but geopolitical volatility, especially in the Middle East, could spark reversals. The recent disconnect between inflation prints and risk-off reactions is a clear sign of intermarket currency correlation in flux, where commodities and currencies are repricing relative to real yields and risk sentiment.
SILVER
Silver remains range-bound. Its stability amid gold’s decline highlights how traders interpret price corrections across correlated assets. While MACD is tilting bearish, RSI remains flat. Until we get a breakout, silver’s price movement may offer clues on whether risk sentiment is truly shifting, underscoring a nuanced layer of volatility-based forex strategies.
DXY
The Dollar’s Friday rally off core inflation data saw follow-through early, but momentum faded. MACD and RSI now signal further bearish potential. With ISM and NFP data due this week, DXY remains a central focus for intermarket currency correlation, especially as it impacts safe-haven flows and correlated majors like EURUSD and USDJPY.
GBPUSD
The Pound remains bullish despite minor consolidation. RSI has cooled off after hitting overbought, and MACD still shows strong upside volume. This move is part of a broader recalibration, where traders lean on long-hold forex strategies to navigate uncertainty between macro fundamentals and U.S. inflation jitters.
AUDUSD
The Aussie is pushing higher as risk appetite improves. Despite dovish RBA expectations, price action has turned bullish again, supported by the EMA200. A clean break above 0.65618 would confirm a structural shift. This setup reflects intermarket currency correlation between commodity currencies and global risk tolerance.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi follows the Aussie but lags slightly. A clean break above 0.60847 would signal bullish continuation. MACD suggests growing buy volume while RSI stays neutral. This divergence in momentum showcases how currency pair correlation can offer staggered entries for diversified strategies.
EURUSD
Euro is pushing higher again, with bullish signals from both MACD and RSI. The pair is supported by macro tailwinds and a weak Dollar backdrop. A potential break above the EMA200 confirms momentum. Traders eyeing forex portfolio diversification should note the Euro’s alignment with other majors in this correlation-driven landscape.
USDJPY
Yen strength remains intact, though it’s hovering near the EMA200. Bearish bias is sustained in both MACD and RSI. The BoJ’s upcoming policy signals will be crucial, but risk-off capital flow is already favoring the Yen—another strong case of intermarket currency correlation in play.
USDCHF
USD/CHF has plunged to its lowest levels since the 2015 SNB shock. Franc strength reflects major global doubt in Dollar stability. With MACD and RSI both strongly bearish, this pair offers one of the clearest risk-reward setups rooted in safe-haven divergence.
USDCAD
The pair saw a late-week bounce after a steep drop. Momentum indicators still favor the downside, but technical structure suggests potential reversal or consolidation. Correlation with oil prices and DXY remains crucial here, making this a key example of multi-asset forex trade planning.
Final Thoughts
This week’s price action is a masterclass in intermarket currency correlation. With commodities, currencies, and economic data all influencing each other, traders must adapt quickly. From the Dollar’s pullback to Franc strength and Aussie/NZD divergence, understanding these relationships is key to executing sound strategies like forex portfolio diversification, risk-reward optimization, and long-hold forex entries.
Stay cautious ahead of NFP, and use this correlation-driven landscape to refine your edge in high-volatility conditions.