COT Market Sentiment
Recent COT data offers directional insight crucial for swing trading risk management and anticipating market momentum during heightened policy changes:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – WEAK (5/5)
- NZD – STRONG (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
With renewed tariff enforcement and Fed policy uncertainty, these biases give traders a guide to define better forex swing entry and exit points.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices dropped as expected, aligning with our bearish technical bias. After rejecting the upper boundary, the market is now approaching the bottom of its range. MACD shows decreasing momentum, and RSI confirms the legitimacy of the pullback. Fundamentally, the Dollar’s strength is being supported by the delay in U.S. rate cuts due to the inflationary effects of tariffs. Traders should use a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator to weigh breakout downside targets versus potential reversal scenarios.
SILVER
Silver is holding at the EMA200, caught in tight consolidation. Indicators suggest potential for bullish continuation, but entry should be delayed until a break of structure is confirmed. Use conservative sizing and swing trading risk management here, as volatility may increase with additional tariff headlines.
DXY
The Dollar has regained bullish momentum after testing EMA200, following confirmation of 25% tariffs on 14 nations and announcements of up to 200% on pharma imports. MACD and RSI show strong buying volume, especially against the Yen. With the FOMC minutes due, traders should expect further directional momentum. Positioning here should follow a structured forex trading approach, targeting breakouts while protecting against retracement traps.
GBPUSD
The Pound has officially broken lower. Technicals confirm a bearish shift, with both MACD and RSI backing increased sell volume. This is a strong candidate for shorts, but entries should still be managed using a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator given potential Dollar volatility around Fed minutes.
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell sharply amid risk-off flows tied to escalating tariffs. MACD and RSI confirm strong bearish momentum. EMA200 now acts as a likely resistance barrier. This is an ideal swing setup with a defined forex swing entry point near the structure break, and plenty of room to manage risk with tight stops.
NZDUSD
NZD/USD mirrors the Aussie’s fall, showing rising bearish momentum. MACD and RSI confirm downside pressure, and a test of support looks imminent. Until a reversal signal is clear, apply strict swing trading risk management and focus on short-term continuation plays.
EURUSD
Despite USD strength, the Euro is holding within range, testing the lower boundary. A break below this level could flip market structure to bearish. MACD and RSI suggest downside bias, but consolidation prevails. Traders should only engage once a breakout confirms direction, using proper risk to reward ratio calculations.
USDJPY
USD/JPY surged past key resistance levels as Japan remains under U.S. tariff threat. MACD and RSI both signal strong bullish continuation. With no significant resistance in sight, this setup favors trend followers. Entry above 146.512 should be monitored closely, with stops managed according to swing trading risk management rules.
USDCHF
USD/CHF is consolidating near its upper boundary. While MACD is bullish, RSI shows overbought conditions. A failed breakout here could lead to a reversion move. Traders should maintain flexibility and rely on predefined forex swing entry and exit points based on confirmation candles and volume behavior.
USDCAD
USD/CAD is breaking higher, led by CAD weakness and safe-haven flows into the Dollar. MACD and RSI show strong bullish momentum, and price has cleared 1.36612. This confirms a structural shift. Traders can look for bullish continuation with calculated entries and stops based on an optimal risk to reward ratio.
Final Thoughts
Global forex markets are now moving in sync with geopolitical headlines, particularly those related to trade policy. The most effective strategy right now is to prioritize swing trading risk management and avoid impulsive positions. Whether you’re shorting the Pound or riding momentum on USD/JPY, every trade should be backed by a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator, clear entry and exit points, and a strategy for managing losses in forex swing trades. As tariffs evolve and central banks respond, your flexibility and structure will determine your edge. Visit: https://worldquestfx.com/