COT Market Sentiment
This week’s COT report presents a market reacting strongly to the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates. The U.S. Dollar has surged while major forex and commodity pairs experience structural shifts. Traders need to adjust positions using a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator and emphasize swing trading risk management in volatile conditions.
COT Snapshot:
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – MIXED
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (3/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – WEAK (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold sold off sharply after the Fed held rates steady. With no immediate path to easing, the Dollar gained strength, dragging Gold lower. MACD and RSI confirm strong selling momentum. Swing traders should look for bearish setups while maintaining a strong swing trading risk management approach around support zones.
SILVER
Silver followed Gold in decline, with MACD and RSI reflecting significant bearish pressure. With the momentum clearly favoring sellers, traders should assess short setups using an optimal risk to reward ratio and wait for clean forex swing entry and exit points.
DXY
The Dollar surged to retest its highs following the Fed’s rate hold. MACD and RSI both show strong bullish momentum. The central bank’s confidence in the economy is fueling this move. Traders should consider USD long setups with a structured forex swing trading approach and manage exposure carefully.
GBPUSD
The Pound continues to decline as bearish momentum gains pace. MACD and RSI support further selling. A retracement could offer new entry points. Traders should calculate positions with a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator and avoid chasing price.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD has shifted to a selling bias, now trading below 0.64427. Momentum and volume remain bearish. Opportunities for short trades are favored, but only when precise forex swing entry and exit points emerge from consolidation.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD broke below the 0.59400 level, confirming a bearish structure. MACD and RSI validate this move, making it a potential trend continuation candidate. Swing traders should manage entries with tight stops and focus on managing losses in forex swing trades during volatile setups.
EURUSD
The Euro’s sell-off continues as USD strength dominates. MACD and RSI show persistent bearish momentum. Sellers should look for continuation patterns while sticking to their swing trading risk management rules to avoid overexposure near support levels.
USDJPY
USDJPY remains bullish, with momentum fueled by USD strength. RSI and MACD both support continuation. A retracement to the EMA200 is possible, which could offer new long opportunities. Waiting for confirmation is essential to align with a structured forex swing trading approach.
USDCHF
USDCHF continues to rise as the Franc weakens. MACD and RSI both show strengthening bullish momentum. Buying opportunities remain valid as long as the Dollar holds firm. Applying an optimal risk to reward ratio will help avoid entering during potential pullbacks.
USDCAD
USDCAD is rising on CAD weakness, though MACD and RSI are subdued. This divergence may signal a powerful underlying trend. Traders should prepare for momentum continuation and identify clear forex swing entry and exit points while monitoring volume growth.
Final Thoughts
The Fed’s rate hold decision has triggered sharp shifts across the forex landscape. While geopolitical risks remain, monetary policy is the dominant driver this week. Traders should remain focused on disciplined swing trading risk management, and always assess setups using a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator. Patience and precision in selecting forex swing entry and exit points will help in navigating post-Fed volatility. Above all, maintain an optimal risk to reward ratio and emphasize managing losses in forex swing trades to preserve capital as directional conviction builds.