COT Market Sentiment
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (2/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (3/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices reversed after failing to break the 3,391.26 level, mainly due to the strong U.S. jobs report showing a 185,000 job increase and a +0.4% jump in Average Hourly Earnings. These numbers weakened expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts and bolstered the Dollar. Yet, improving U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical tensions are providing support for long-term stability.
Technically, GOLD has slipped below the EMA200 but still respects bullish structures. This makes it a prime candidate for long-hold forex strategies, as we anticipate price action testing the lower boundary of the consolidation zone before resuming upward. The MACD and RSI now signal a potential slowdown, which is critical for planning entries with a favorable risk-reward ratio in forex swings.
SILVER
SILVER continues to climb, diverging from GOLD, and acting as an important signal of intermarket currency correlation. As GOLD corrects, SILVER’s rise may indicate that traders are reallocating their exposure. Strong bullish volume and momentum in MACD and RSI suggest a potential continuation higher, though it may stall once GOLD stabilizes.
DXY
The U.S. Dollar is consolidating after Friday’s surge. Investors await clarity from U.S.-China trade negotiations. This prolonged indecision is typical ahead of major events, offering an ideal setup for volatility-based forex strategies that thrive in reactive short-term trades following high-impact news.
GBPUSD
The Pound shows strong bullish activity, bouncing off the EMA200 and supported by RSI. Despite MACD’s neutral stance, the price action is bullish, favoring trend-continuation trades. For those applying a diversified portfolio approach, GBP is an attractive buy, enhancing forex portfolio diversification with its relative strength and momentum.
AUDUSD
AUD is consolidating just below a previous high, with the 0.64801 level offering firm support. While RSI shows bearish signals, MACD highlights growing bullish volume. AUD’s potential breakout would complement a diversified strategy and fits well within volatility-based forex strategies, given its sensitivity to global risk trends.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi has neared EMA200, offering a potential bounce. However, resistance at 0.60455 remains a challenge. RSI shows bearish pressure while MACD stays neutral. Weakness in cross-pairs like AUD/NZD adds further complexity. Traders monitoring intermarket currency correlation should consider external factors before committing to long trades.
EURUSD
The Euro is range-bound, finding support at the EMA200. MACD shows growing buying interest, but RSI is nearing overbought territory. This pair remains suitable for long-hold forex strategies, especially if a break above the consolidation range occurs on positive trade developments or further Dollar weakness.
USDJPY
Yen pairs are consolidating with a wider-than-expected range. While market speculation increases, we prefer to wait for a structural breakout. No clear directional edge means risk-reward ratio in forex swings must be managed carefully, avoiding overexposure during indecision.
USDCHF
The Franc remains under resistance and shows signs of potential bearish continuation. MACD and RSI confirm growing sell-side momentum. This pair could serve as a tactical short entry within a broader forex portfolio diversification plan, especially given the inverse movement against USD strength.
USDCAD
USD/CAD continues its bearish trend, consolidating between 1.36328 and 1.36612. Resistance is holding back upward moves, while MACD and RSI favor sellers. Bearish structures dominate, offering an opportunity for calculated entries with favorable risk-reward ratio in forex swings.
Final Thoughts
This week’s price action across key forex pairs highlights the importance of strategic planning. Whether you’re targeting long-hold forex strategies in EURUSD and GOLD, seeking short bursts of action through volatility-based forex strategies, or using intermarket currency correlation to guide entries in commodities and cross-pairs, there are multiple setups with potential.
Equally, combining asset exposure using forex portfolio diversification not only spreads risk but opens the door for smarter trading opportunities. As always, evaluating every trade with a solid risk-reward ratio in forex swings will help preserve capital while maximizing long-term profitability.