COT Market Sentiment
The latest COT reports highlight weakness across AUD, GBP, CAD, USD, NZD, and CHF, while EUR, JPY, GOLD, and SILVER show resilience. These divergences provide 9 Critical Forex Signals that traders can use to adjust their swing strategies. By combining sentiment with technicals, traders can build confidence in timing entries and exits. The emphasis remains on risk management, as consolidations and breakouts across pairs align with broader U.S. Dollar weakness and safe-haven flows. Monitoring these setups will help refine trade execution in the sessions ahead.
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – SLIGHTLY WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (4/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD (DXY) – WEAK (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold rallied strongly off 3,627 and pushed back toward the 3,680s, supported by safe-haven demand and dollar weakness. Momentum is bullish, though exhaustion near resistance remains possible. MACD confirms strong buying, while RSI shows constructive momentum. This setup aligns with one of the 9 Critical Forex Signals, as traders should look for continuation entries while monitoring consolidation zones near resistance. Support lies around 3,655, while a breakout over 3,690 could open 3,700–3,710. Bias remains bullish while above 3,655.
SILVER
Silver extended its rally into the low $42 area, supported by dollar softness and strong precious metals demand. While momentum cooled slightly from overbought, MACD remains bullish and RSI reflects strength. This forms part of the 9 Critical Forex Signals, as silver offers opportunities for continuation plays. Traders should monitor support at $42.00 and resistance at $43.60–44.20. Bias remains bullish but stretched, meaning consolidation is possible unless $44.20 breaks decisively.
DXY
The Dollar Index recovered from mid-96s and is trading near 97.6–97.7, regaining short-term strength but staying capped by multi-day resistance. MACD shows mild bullish signals, yet price action remains vulnerable to rejection at 98.00. As one of the 9 Critical Forex Signals, DXY’s behavior shapes sentiment across major pairs. Support lies at 97.00, while a sustained break above 98.00 would shift bias higher. For now, cautiously bullish while above 97.00, but sellers remain active near topside resistance.
GBPUSD
GBP/USD reversed from highs near 1.372 and dropped toward 1.346–1.350, with momentum turning bearish. RSI is oversold, and MACD confirms downside momentum. This creates one of the 9 Critical Forex Signals, signaling GBP weakness against renewed dollar strength. Sellers remain in control while price is capped below 1.3620. Support lies at 1.3490–1.3460, with resistance at 1.3620–1.3660. Bias stays bearish until price reclaims 1.3550–1.3600, with downside favored in current market conditions.
AUDUSD
AUD/USD rolled over from 0.6707 highs and trades near 0.6590, reflecting bearish pressure. RSI turned lower, and MACD shows softening momentum. This adds to the 9 Critical Forex Signals, as Aussie sentiment has weakened alongside commodities. Support lies at 0.6590 and 0.6550, with resistance at 0.6670–0.6700. Bias is neutral-to-bearish unless price reclaims 0.6670, at which point the structure could shift bullish again. Traders should stay cautious until clear confirmation emerges.
NZDUSD
NZD/USD follows AUD’s weakness, pressured by softer NZ data and dollar strength. MACD shows bearish pressure, and RSI signals momentum fading. This pair highlights another of the 9 Critical Forex Signals, where continued downside could unfold if 0.5915 breaks decisively. Support lies at 0.5940–0.5915, with further levels near 0.5880. Resistance is 0.5980–0.6000. Bias remains bearish while below 0.5980, with a sustained break lower confirming further weakness.
EURUSD
EUR/USD pulled back to the 1.174–1.179 zone, cooling after recent rallies. RSI remains neutral, and MACD shows mixed momentum. This creates one of the 9 Critical Forex Signals, where euro strength depends on sustained dollar softness. Support lies at 1.1715, with stronger footing at 1.1660. Resistance is 1.1785–1.1820. Bias stays neutral-to-bullish while above 1.1715, with a breakout above 1.1820 needed to confirm further upside. Until then, price action remains capped within consolidation.
USDJPY
USD/JPY rebounded from ~145.48 lows to test 147.8–148.3 resistance, showing positive short-term momentum. MACD and RSI confirm stabilization, but intervention risk keeps traders cautious. As part of the 9 Critical Forex Signals, USD/JPY reflects mixed sentiment, with support at 146.70 and 145.50. Resistance is 147.70–148.20. Bias remains neutral-to-bullish above 146.70, though failure under 146.30 could re-open downside risk. Traders should monitor for shifts tied to macro headlines.
USDCHF
USD/CHF recovered from lows near 0.782–0.783 and moved toward 0.7950, with bullish momentum building on the 1-hour. MACD supports further gains, while RSI stays constructive. This forms another of the 9 Critical Forex Signals, though upside remains capped at 0.8000. Support is 0.7920, with firmer footing at 0.7850. Bias is neutral-to-bullish while above 0.7920, but watch for rejection at resistance as broader trend remains uncertain.
USDCAD
USD/CAD rebounded off 1.3726–1.3731 lows and is trading around 1.3770 in a choppy, mixed structure. MACD reflects indecision, and RSI confirms momentum is balanced. This pair completes the 9 Critical Forex Signals, with support at 1.3730–1.3700 and resistance at 1.3800–1.3835. Bias is neutral until a decisive break occurs — bullish above 1.3835, bearish below 1.3730. Traders should remain cautious as CAD sensitivity to oil prices could shift bias quickly.
Final Thoughts
The COT reports and technicals outline 9 Critical Forex Signals that traders should monitor closely. From gold’s bullish momentum to the dollar’s mixed recovery and commodity-linked currencies under pressure, setups remain active across multiple assets. Traders should remain disciplined, waiting for breakout confirmations and aligning with sentiment shifts. For more advanced insights and strategies, visit GFS Markets, RS Fin, and WorldQuestFX.