Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices reached a significant peak of $3,000 per ounce last week, surpassing expectations. This surge was fueled by weaker-than-expected consumer confidence data, which contracted to 57.9, below the expected 63.1. This contraction indicates that consumers are losing confidence in the U.S. economy, potentially leading to job losses and an overall slowdown. Core PPI also contracted by -0.1%, which was a negative surprise compared to the expected 0.3% growth, adding pressure to the U.S. dollar.
The rise in gold prices was further supported by Trump’s tariffs, which have heightened the potential for escalating trade wars. Geopolitical tensions continue to impact global markets, with the U.S. intensifying its actions in Yemen and Israel conducting military strikes in Gaza. The increase in tariffs, along with political instability, has created a perfect storm for gold to continue its upward trend.
We expect further buying of gold following a potential consolidation or retracement. Both the MACD and RSI continue to support a bullish outlook. However, the MACD indicates that the current upward move may be short-lived and lacks conviction. We will continue to monitor for potential price action changes in the coming days.
SILVER
Silver prices are closely following gold’s movement and showing increased bullish momentum. The MACD is on the rise, and the RSI reflects continued bullish momentum. Silver has benefited from gold’s strength, and we expect further buying in the coming days. However, we remain cautious about potential consolidation or retracement, as the market might need to stabilize before continuing its upward movement.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The dollar is experiencing consolidation as investors seek alternative hedges amid the rise in gold prices. The U.S. dollar’s strength has been overshadowed by investor risk sentiment and a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold. The fear of tariffs and potential inflationary pressures under Trump’s policies has added to the dollar’s uncertainty.
While the dollar has remained relatively stable, the market is bracing for Chairman Powell’s comments this Wednesday, which could provide clarity on potential rate cuts. Until then, we expect the overall price action to remain bearish, and we continue to look for selling opportunities.
GBPUSD
The British pound remains in consolidation, with no clear movement in either direction. The market is respecting bullish structures, but a more definitive break is needed before making any directional calls. We will wait for clearer market developments in the coming days before adjusting our position.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar has shown strength despite global uncertainties, as it benefits from the shift away from the dollar. Both the MACD and RSI show increased bullish momentum and volume growth. We anticipate further buying in the coming days, but caution remains due to the risk sensitivity of the Aussie dollar. Should the dollar show more strength, we could see a reversal, but overall, the trend remains bullish.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand dollar is showing even stronger bullish movement than the Aussie dollar. This strength is partly due to China’s increased trade with New Zealand, providing economic support. Both the MACD and RSI confirm continued momentum and volume growth. Price action has broken through key resistance zones, and we expect further bullish movement in the coming days.
EURUSD
The euro is underperforming slightly but remains in a consolidation phase. The market is waiting for a clearer break in either direction. We anticipate a possible rise if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. However, until a clear breakout occurs, we withhold further analysis on this pair.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to be under pressure, losing ground to the stagnant U.S. dollar. Although the price briefly moved above the previous lower high, it failed to sustain the rise. The market remains bearish, and we are waiting for a clear break to the downside. Despite the oversold RSI, the increasing volume in the MACD suggests the potential for further downside movement.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc has shown some buying momentum, testing the EMA200 but failing to break above it. The overall market structure remains bearish, with the RSI and MACD not providing strong signals. We anticipate further selling in the near term as price action respects the broader downward trend.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar remains in consolidation, and no major changes are expected. While Trump’s tariff policies may put pressure on the CAD, we continue to wait for a definitive break in price before making any moves. The market remains locked in a range, and we expect further trading in this consolidation phase until more clarity emerges.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Conclusion
With statistical forex analysis, data-driven trading strategies, and quantitative risk assessment, this market update highlights key trends in gold, silver, and forex markets. Machine learning forex models and algorithmic market predictions suggest that the U.S. dollar remains under pressure due to geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary fears, while gold continues its bullish momentum.
Traders should remain vigilant and monitor key economic data, especially regarding potential rate cuts and trade policy developments. Gold is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, while forex pairs such as GBPUSD and NZDUSD show promising bullish potential in the near term.