Market Overview
With multiple U.S. tariffs now live, market volatility has surged. Effective April 5, 2025, a baseline 10% tariff applies to nearly all imports into the U.S., excluding Canada, Mexico, and Belarus. On April 3, automotive tariffs of 25% began targeting non-USMCA vehicles and parts. Also in effect since March 12 are 25% aluminum and steel tariffs under Section 232, covering a wide range of industrial products.
Reciprocal tariffs begin April 9 and include:
- China – 34%
- EU – 20%
- Angola – 32%
- Cambodia – 49%
- Others – 11–50%, based on trade imbalances
In response, countries like China have launched export controls on rare earth metals, while the EU plans $8B in duties targeting U.S. tech and agriculture. Brazil and India are threatening retaliatory tariffs unless exemptions are granted.
Markets are bracing for a potential global trade war. Fed Chair Powell warned the impact could exceed expectations, citing possible slower growth and higher inflation. A 34% chance of a -25 bps rate cut is now priced in for the May 6–7 FOMC meeting.
From a forex pair analysis perspective, volatility is high, risk sentiment is shifting, and trade setups must be approached with caution. Let’s dive into the technical breakdown.
Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD is extremely volatile. Despite technical signals for a sell-off via MACD and RSI, a sudden bullish spike during the Asian session unsettled market sentiment. This suggests profit-taking behavior or margin call coverage elsewhere.
While the overall bias leans toward further consolidation, it’s best to avoid trading GOLD unless you have the capital to withstand sudden moves. There’s potential for a rapid trade setup, but the risk is elevated.
SILVER
SILVER is mimicking GOLD’s volatility. The MACD and RSI both confirm increased bearish momentum, suggesting further downside is likely. Patience is key — traders should wait for a more stable signal before entering.
DXY
The Dollar Index surged post-tariff announcements. MACD volume increased sharply, and RSI is normalizing. Despite this move, the overall structure remains bearish, with the EMA200 acting as resistance. This aligns with cautious forex market trend analysis expectations — strength in the dollar may be short-lived.
GBPUSD
The Pound is experiencing sharp selling pressure. MACD and RSI confirm increased bearish momentum. This move represents a reversal from last week’s uptrend. Unless U.S. dollar strength fades quickly, further downside is expected.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar continues to weaken. MACD and RSI indicate a clear bearish trend with growing volume. While we remain conservative due to market fragility, selling opportunities could emerge with short pullbacks.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi also broke expectations — after an early bullish sign, sentiment flipped back to bearish. MACD and RSI now confirm this with strong downside volume. With markets in risk-off mode, the Kiwi may continue falling, though conservatism is warranted due to unpredictability.
EURUSD
The Euro faces selling pressure after being targeted by U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Without negotiations to ease these policies, more downside is likely. Technicals (MACD and RSI) support this bearish outlook, and trading EUR/USD tips now lean toward sell-side setups.
USDJPY
The Yen is acting as a safe haven. Despite low volatility, price is attempting to break through resistance zones. MACD and RSI show selling pressure building. If momentum holds, expect continued downside for USDJPY.
This is a solid opportunity for traders seeking forex pair analysis setups that favor global uncertainty.
USDCHF
The Franc is performing similarly to the Yen — it’s gaining as a hedge against the Dollar. MACD and RSI both confirm bearish signals. Expect more downside for this pair as risk sentiment turns defensive.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar remains weak but is testing the EMA200 and the bottom of its consolidation range. MACD and RSI suggest building bullish momentum. If the price breaks back above the EMA200, we could see a return to bullish behavior — offering potential rapid trade setups later in the week.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, reinforcing directional bias:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – WEAK (3/5)
Use these ratings to validate or filter your trades. If you’re reviewing execution performance or platform tools, see our MT4 vs MT5 comparison to identify which platform aligns with your strategy.
Final Thoughts
Markets are extremely reactive following the rollout of U.S. tariffs. As this week’s forex pair analysis shows, volatility is high, direction is fragile, and sentiment can shift instantly. Whether you’re looking for trading EUR/USD tips, quick rapid trade setups, or evaluating platforms via an MT4 vs MT5 comparison, now is the time for precision and patience.
Stay connected for real-time updates and tactical insights to stay ahead of the market curve.