Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices surged following Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff pause, which coincided with a sharp rise in trading volume. Despite the potential for short-term stabilization, the pause does not eliminate the underlying risks. The MACD and RSI indicate continued bullish momentum for gold, making it an attractive safe haven amid rising inflation concerns. As tariffs on Chinese imports increase, gold may continue to rise as traders hedge against economic uncertainty.
SILVER
SILVER prices have shown resilience, approaching the EMA200 after a rise in yesterday’s trading session. Although broader momentum remains bearish, there’s increasing potential for short-term gains in line with gold’s performance. Both MACD and RSI reflect growing bullish volume, supporting the possibility of further price appreciation in the near term.
DXY
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of weakness, with the EMA200 continuing to act as strong resistance. The MACD signals increasing selling volume, while the RSI indicates growing bearish momentum. Despite the tariff pause, the dollar remains under pressure, and we anticipate further downside unless macroeconomic conditions shift.
GBPUSD
The Pound remains in consolidation near the EMA200, with both the MACD and RSI showing increasing bearish momentum. The market direction remains uncertain, but unless a clear breakout occurs, we expect a continuation of the bearish trend.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar is facing resistance at the EMA200 and the 0.61705 level. Despite signs of bullish momentum from the MACD and RSI, the broader trend remains bearish. We anticipate further downside, but will look for selling opportunities should the market shift back to bearish conditions.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi has faced resistance at the EMA200 but has shown increasing bullish momentum. However, the overall market sentiment remains risk-off, and the bearish trend is likely to continue. We will continue to monitor price action and adjust our strategy accordingly.
EURUSD
The Euro failed to break higher after encountering resistance at 1.10478. Given the increasing tariffs, further downside for EUR/USD is likely unless negotiations to reduce these tariffs take place. The MACD and RSI indicate bearish momentum, reinforcing the expectation of more selling.
USDJPY
The Yen remains in a wide consolidation range with no clear directional breakout. While MACD and RSI suggest potential bullish movement, we expect the consolidation to continue for now. A stronger momentum shift will be required for a definitive trend to form.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc has shown some strength following the tariff pause announcement. However, the overall market structure remains bearish, and we expect further downside despite short-term gains. Both the MACD and RSI suggest limited upside potential from current levels.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar is under increased selling pressure, with both the MACD and RSI showing rising bearish volume. The EMA200 remains a strong resistance level. We continue to look for short opportunities as the overall market structure remains bearish.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, which reinforces the directional bias:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – WEAK (3/5)
This outlook reinforces our view of continued bearish trends in the CAD, GBP, and EUR, with stronger sentiment for the JPY and USD. Traders can use these insights to refine their positions and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Final Thoughts
As global trade dynamics shift, the forex market is increasingly volatile. The 90-day tariff pause introduces temporary relief but also raises concerns about the longer-term effects on inflation and economic growth. Traders should focus on rapid trade setups, especially in pairs such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD, where price action is likely to remain volatile.
By staying informed and monitoring these market shifts closely, traders can navigate the uncertainty and capitalize on emerging trends. Whether you’re looking for forex pair analysis or interested in trading gold as a safe haven, now is the time to act with caution and precision.