COT Market Sentiment
With the return of aggressive U.S. tariffs and rate speculation, traders must reassess bias using COT positioning and a structured forex trading approach:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – WEAK (5/5)
- NZD – STRONG (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
With tariffs altering sentiment daily, traders should define tighter forex swing entry and exit points and reassess volatility exposure using a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold is testing its upper range boundary after climbing from EMA200. While MACD shows growing bullish volume, RSI is near overbought. Price action still respects the broader bearish structure, so traders should wait for confirmation before entering. Swing trading risk management is essential here due to potential sudden reversals if Dollar strength resumes.
SILVER
Silver is retesting previous highs. MACD and RSI support continued bullish momentum, but the pair remains in a consolidation range. A breakout would confirm continuation, while failure would signal ongoing range behavior. Until then, use a structured forex trading approach with defined breakout parameters.
DXY
The Dollar is rising after testing EMA200 and is now challenging the 97.932 level. Despite this strength, Trump’s aggressive tariff moves and rate cut demands complicate long-term outlooks. MACD and RSI confirm current bullish bias, but risk is high. Expect short-term strength, but prepare for possible reversals. A balanced risk to reward ratio is critical here.
GBPUSD
The Pound is following through on its bearish setup. MACD and RSI both show increasing sell volume. With price breaking lower, this pair offers clean downside opportunity. Traders should still measure entries with a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator as volatility may spike with U.S. policy changes.
AUDUSD
The Aussie is gaining from RBA rate hold and risk-on sentiment. While fundamentals offer strength, price remains technically below a key level (0.65869). MACD and RSI both show bullish pressure. Watch for a break to confirm direction. Until then, apply swing trading risk management carefully as the trend remains contested.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi is lagging behind the Aussie, staying under EMA200. MACD shows mild bullish growth; RSI nears oversold levels. This setup favors downside continuation unless a strong fundamental catalyst appears. Expect consolidation until structure breaks.
EURUSD
EUR/USD is showing bearish pressure within its range. MACD and RSI both confirm sell bias, but no breakout yet. Until price clears key support, this remains a waiting game. Traders should define forex swing entry and exit points in advance to react quickly once momentum takes hold.
USDJPY
USD/JPY is rising on renewed Yen weakness. MACD and RSI show bullish continuation, though RSI is near overbought. A short-term pullback is likely before the next leg higher. Position size and stop placement must reflect this with proper swing trading risk management protocols.
USDCHF
The Franc is consolidating within its range, testing the upper boundary. MACD shows some bullish growth, while RSI signals overbought. Without a clear break, this pair remains neutral. Any entries should be short-term and based on strict risk to reward ratio planning.
USDCAD
USD/CAD is climbing after Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods. MACD is muted, but price action remains bullish. The pair is testing the 1.37261 resistance. A break would confirm further upside. Traders should be cautious here as the muted momentum suggests indecision. Use a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator to define parameters before entering.
Final Thoughts
The forex market is now driven by fast-changing political headlines and trade policy updates. As Trump intensifies tariff pressure and speculates on massive Fed cuts, currency markets are reacting with sharp volatility. Traders must focus on defining forex swing entry and exit points, enforcing swing trading risk management, and using tools like a forex swing trade risk-reward calculator to avoid overexposure. Whether trading Gold, Dollar crosses, or commodity currencies, your edge now depends on precision, patience, and adaptability.