COT Market Sentiment
This week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data reveals a mix of strong and weak sentiment across major currencies and commodities. These readings form the foundation of our 11 Strong Forex Setups, combining institutional positioning with technical and fundamental triggers.
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – WEAK (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (2/5)
- JPY – STRONG (2/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – WEAK (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (3/5)
These sentiment shifts highlight where buying and selling pressures may dominate in the week ahead.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold is consolidating at the EMA200, holding as a potential support level for further upside. Bullish sentiment remains intact, supported by expectations of a September Fed rate cut. The rally has eased following easing geopolitical tensions, as President Trump announced plans to meet Russian President Putin for Ukraine peace talks. As part of the 11 Strong Forex Setups, we continue to monitor for breakout buying opportunities after this pause.
SILVER
Silver remains above key support despite consolidation. MACD shows mild bearish volume, but sellers have failed to push prices lower—a potential sign of hidden strength. This setup in the 11 Strong Forex Setups could turn into a bullish continuation if resistance gives way, making it one to watch closely.
DXY
The U.S. Dollar Index saw volatile “whipsaw” moves, hinting at potential stop-loss triggers both ways. Its direction hinges on CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales data this week. While Ukraine peace talks provide temporary support, the looming Fed rate cut narrative caps upside potential. This USD weakness underpins many bullish counter-currency opportunities in our 11 Strong Forex Setups.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD consolidates near 1.34294 with higher probability for continued buying. RSI is approaching overbought, but strong buying volume absorbs selling pressure. As part of the 11 Strong Forex Setups, we look for breakouts to the upside before the week’s data releases.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD is in a tight consolidation around 0.65244, with MACD and RSI both flat. While sentiment hints at a future bullish push, no clear structure break has occurred. This setup in the 11 Strong Forex Setups is worth watching for a confirmed directional move.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD mirrors AUDUSD’s sideways structure, awaiting a catalyst for a breakout. As part of the 11 Strong Forex Setups, the pair is on hold until momentum clearly shifts in one direction.
EURUSD
EURUSD holds a bullish structure but is capped under key resistance. MACD shows building buying volume, but overbought RSI suggests a pullback toward EMA200 is possible before resuming higher. This is one of the stronger bullish watchlist setups in the 11 Strong Forex Setups.
USDJPY
USDJPY tests EMA200 resistance with a possible sell-off continuation in sight. Price action is still consolidating, and confirmation would come with a break below 146.512 support. This bearish candidate remains part of the 11 Strong Forex Setups for the week.
USDCHF
USDCHF consolidates at EMA200 support, with oversold RSI possibly attracting buyers. While a bearish break is possible if support fails, current conditions favor a bounce, making it a potential reversal setup in the 11 Strong Forex Setups.
USDCAD
USDCAD is trapped between EMA200 and 1.37261 resistance. The trend has shifted bearish, with MACD showing increased selling volume. We expect further downside, pending confirmation from upcoming Canadian jobs data. This makes it one of the key short setups in the 11 Strong Forex Setups.
Final Thoughts
The 11 Strong Forex Setups this week present a mix of breakout and consolidation plays across metals and major currency pairs. Gold, Silver, and EURUSD remain top bullish candidates, while USDCAD and USDJPY show clearer bearish potential.
To maximize success:
- Wait for clean technical confirmations before entering.
- Stay alert to high-impact data releases shaping USD sentiment.
- Use institutional positioning from COT data to guide trade direction.