Market Overview
Current U.S. Tariff Conditions & Market Impact
With the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, the forex market has seen significant volatility. A 90-day pause on new tariffs has been announced, but Trump clarified that tariff exclusions will be short-lived—especially for smartphones and computers. While this gives temporary relief, tariffs on Chinese imports remain at 125%. This continuation of tariff measures is likely to influence forex market trend analysis in the coming months.
From a forex swing trading strategies perspective, GOLD remains the primary safe haven. MACD and RSI signals point to sustained bullish momentum. Despite a potential temporary pause in tariffs, global uncertainty, and trade risks will likely maintain GOLD’s appeal.
Market Analysis: Precious Metals and Currency Pairs
GOLD
GOLD prices continue to rise due to the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The MACD shows increasing selling volume even as prices climb, a signal often seen in strong uptrends. The RSI is recovering from overbought levels, which hints at sustained buying interest. Traders using position trading in forex can capitalize on this trend, holding positions longer to benefit from ongoing bullish momentum. GOLD’s strength as a safe haven is expected to continue amid geopolitical risks.
SILVER
SILVER has flipped bullish after breaking above the EMA200, confirming the upward trend with MACD and RSI. The correlation between GOLD and SILVER suggests that as long as SILVER stays suppressed, GOLD’s rally is sustainable. However, rapid gains in SILVER can indicate that GOLD might be overextended. This trend offers opportunities for traders using forex swing trading strategies to adjust positions based on the relative strength of these metals.
DXY and Dollar Outlook
DXY
The Dollar remains under pressure as trade war tensions persist. The MACD reflects upward volume divergence as prices decline, and the RSI shows growing bearish momentum. With inflation risks looming, Dollar weakness is likely to continue, giving traders ample opportunity to take advantage of this trend. Volatility in cross-currency pairs will likely rise as the Dollar remains a key focus in global forex markets.
Forex Pair Analysis
GBPUSD
The Pound shows strength against the Dollar, supported by increasing bullish volume and momentum in the MACD and RSI. We expect near-term consolidation, but the broader trend remains bullish. As the Dollar weakens, we favor position trading in forex for longer-term gains in the GBPUSD pair.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar continues to show bullish pressure. Despite rising momentum from the MACD and RSI, the strength appears more related to Dollar weakness than solid domestic fundamentals. We remain cautious and prefer to wait for confirmation before committing to a long position. A more stable market environment will be required for sustained bullish action.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi follows a similar path to the Aussie, showing bullish alignment in the MACD and RSI. While short-term pullbacks may occur, the bias remains upward. However, the movement is driven more by global Dollar sentiment than independent strength. This trend is ideal for traders utilizing forex swing trading strategies based on momentum.
EURUSD
The Euro has shown resilience against the Dollar, extending gains confirmed by the MACD and RSI. While a retracement could occur to test key support levels, the trend remains bullish. Volatility in cross-currency pairs such as EUR/USD suggests that this pair may present multiple buying opportunities in the short term.
Safe Haven Flows: JPY and CHF Analysis
USDJPY
The Yen continues to gain as investors seek safety amid Dollar volatility. Both the MACD and RSI show increased bearish momentum on USD/JPY. However, the safe-haven dynamics can reverse quickly, and we remain cautious, preferring a more definitive breakout before entering a trade.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc continues to show strength against the Dollar, supported by increasing selling momentum from the MACD and RSI. While there is potential for a short-term retracement, the overall bearish trend remains intact. Position trading in forex will be more effective for this pair as we await clearer directional signals.
USDCAD Outlook
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar is under increasing bearish pressure as the MACD and RSI show no signs of reversal. With Dollar weakness and ongoing trade tensions, we continue to favor short opportunities in USDCAD. As forex pair analysis suggests, the overall market structure remains bearish, reinforcing our outlook.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, reinforcing the directional bias:
- AUD – WEAK (3/5)
- GBP – WEAK (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
These insights support our view of continued Dollar weakness and the strength of currencies like EUR, JPY, and Gold, providing traders with a clearer roadmap for upcoming trades.
Final Thoughts
The global trade tensions are continuing to fuel volatility, particularly in forex market trend analysis. With USDJPY, GBPUSD, and USDCAD showing significant moves, traders should keep a close eye on these pairs. Volatility in cross-currency pairs will continue to offer short-term opportunities, especially in forex swing trading strategies where price action is key. By focusing on technical indicators like MACD and RSI, traders can effectively navigate these markets while managing risk.
Stay informed and ready to adjust positions as the global economic landscape continues to evolve.