Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices have reached new historic highs at $3,275.30/oz, surpassing earlier projections for the year. Despite the rise, MACD and RSI indicators suggest that a short-term pullback is possible before continuing higher. We maintain a target of $3,800/oz by year-end, assuming the continuation of geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty. Traders can capitalize on this momentum using forex swing trading strategies to benefit from ongoing bullish trends in precious metals.
SILVER
SILVER remains relatively muted despite GOLD’s breakout. The MACD shows increased bullish volume, but price action has yet to catch up. This lag could signal a delayed rally, and patience is key for traders awaiting clearer directional signals. The RSI shows overbought conditions, suggesting a possible pullback before a more significant move. Traders using forex swing trading strategies should monitor the correlation between GOLD and SILVER closely, as SILVER often follows GOLD’s lead.
DXY
The U.S. Dollar continues to face downward pressure, with both the MACD and RSI indicating a bearish bias. The recent tariff shifts have softened the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, leading to further selling pressure. We anticipate additional Dollar weakness over the medium term, presenting opportunities for traders to take advantage of continued volatility in cross-currency pairs. The DXY outlook suggests that Dollar-based pairs, such as EUR/USD, will continue to experience increased volatility.
GBPUSD
The Pound is showing a resurgence of bullish movement, supported by increasing volume and momentum in the MACD and RSI. As the Dollar weakens, we anticipate continued upside in the GBP/USD pair. Traders should focus on position trading in forex for longer-term gains, as the structural trend remains intact.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar is maintaining bullish pressure, confirmed by both the MACD and RSI. However, the pair faces resistance near the EMA200. Given the potential for a short-term pullback, we recommend caution and waiting for clearer confirmation before entering new positions. Still, the underlying momentum remains bullish.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi mirrors the Aussie Dollar in performance, with both the MACD and RSI showing increasing bullish momentum. While short-term pullbacks may occur, the upward bias remains intact. The movement is driven primarily by global Dollar sentiment, making it an ideal opportunity for forex swing trading strategies based on momentum.
EURUSD
The Euro continues to show strength against the Dollar, supported by increasing bullish volume in the MACD and RSI. Although retracement to key support levels is possible, the overall trend remains bullish. Volatility in cross-currency pairs such as EUR/USD presents multiple buying opportunities for traders willing to follow the trend.
USDJPY
The Yen is experiencing renewed bearish pressure, but its strength relative to the Dollar is expected to rise over time, particularly given the stable economic outlook in Japan. Both the MACD and RSI show increased bearish momentum on USD/JPY. Traders should look for short opportunities, but a more definitive breakout will be needed for confirmation.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc continues to show strength against the Dollar, with both MACD and RSI reflecting increased selling momentum. Although the trend remains bearish, we expect potential short-term retracements. For now, we remain cautious and will look for pullbacks as opportunities to re-enter bearish positions.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar is showing short-term bullish momentum, as both the MACD and RSI suggest further upside. However, the broader trend remains bearish, and we continue to favor short opportunities unless there is a convincing break above the EMA200. The forex pair analysis suggests that the bearish market structure will likely continue.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, reinforcing the directional bias:
- AUD – WEAK (3/5)
- GBP – WEAK (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
This outlook supports the continued Dollar weakness, along with the strength of currencies like the EUR, JPY, and GOLD, providing traders with a clearer roadmap for upcoming trades.
Final Thoughts
The ongoing trade tensions and volatility in cross-currency pairs present significant opportunities for forex traders. By utilizing forex swing trading strategies, traders can capture mid- to long-term trends in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Focusing on technical indicators like MACD and RSI will help traders effectively navigate these markets while managing risk.
Stay informed and ready to adjust positions as the global economic landscape continues to evolve.