Market Overview
Forex Swing Trading Strategies Amid Geopolitical Tensions
GOLD prices continue to surge, bolstered by the escalating US-China trade tensions. While the White House announced tariff exclusions on Friday, Trump clarified over the weekend that these will be short-lived—especially for smartphones and computers. This signals that the broader reciprocal tariff measures remain in force, and will resume in full if no progress is made during the 90-day pause.
From a forex swing trading strategies perspective, GOLD remains in favor as a safe haven amidst geopolitical uncertainty and trade risks. The MACD is showing increasing selling volume, even as prices rise, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Meanwhile, the RSI remains high but is recovering from near overbought levels, hinting at sustained buying interest.
Traders looking for swing trades in the precious metals market can focus on the trend’s momentum, using position trading in forex techniques to capitalize on long-term moves while managing volatility.
Market Analysis: Precious Metals and Currency Pairs
SILVER
SILVER has flipped bullish after breaking above the EMA200. Both the MACD and RSI confirm this shift, showing rising bullish volume and momentum. As cross rates analysis shows, the correlation between GOLD and SILVER remains strong. When SILVER stays suppressed while GOLD soars, it suggests that GOLD’s rally is sustainable. However, once SILVER starts gaining rapidly, it often signals that GOLD is overextended.
Dollar weakness continues to fuel strength in precious metals, providing additional opportunities for traders. Volatility in cross-currency pairs will likely increase as SILVER follows suit with GOLD’s movement.
Dollar Weakness and Global Sentiment
DXY
The Dollar remains under pressure. The MACD reflects upward volume divergence as prices decline, suggesting increasing bearish bias. The RSI shows growing bearish momentum. With trade war tensions persisting and inflation risks looming, more Dollar weakness is likely over the medium term. The full impact of these dynamics may become more visible in the coming months, creating opportunities for traders to implement forex swing trading strategies based on market shifts.
Forex Pair Analysis
GBPUSD
The Pound is strengthening, supported by bullish technicals. Both the MACD and RSI show rising bullish volume and momentum, primarily driven by Dollar weakness. While we may see near-term consolidation, the broader momentum favors continued upside. We maintain a bullish stance unless a clear structural reversal occurs.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar also reflects continued bullish pressure. The MACD and RSI confirm rising momentum and volume. However, this strength appears more related to Dollar weakness than strong domestic fundamentals. Despite the upside bias, we remain cautious and prefer to trade conservatively until price confirms broader stability.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi follows a similar path to the Aussie, with both the MACD and RSI showing bullish alignment. While short-term pullbacks may occur, the bias remains upward. As with the AUD, this movement is tied to global Dollar sentiment rather than independent strength.
EURUSD
The Euro remains firm, extending gains as confirmed by increasing bullish volume and momentum on both the MACD and RSI. While a retracement could occur to test key support levels, the overall trend remains bullish. Volatility in cross-currency pairs like EUR/USD should continue as we monitor the overall trend, searching for buying opportunities.
Safe Haven Flows: JPY and CHF Analysis
USDJPY
The Yen is gaining strength as investors seek safety amid Dollar volatility. Both the MACD and RSI reflect increased bearish momentum on USD/JPY. However, we remain cautious and prefer to wait for a clearer directional breakout, as safe-haven dynamics can be short-lived or reverse suddenly depending on global developments.
USDCHF
The Franc continues its bearish movement against the Dollar. Both the MACD and RSI signal increasing selling momentum, supporting the expectation for continued downside. However, with signs of potential short-term retracement, we maintain a cautious outlook and will look for pullbacks as opportunities to re-enter bearish positions.
USDCAD and Canadian Dollar Outlook
USDCAD
The CAD is showing increased bearish momentum, with CAD strength dominating as USD weakens. The MACD and RSI show no signs of reversal, favoring a continuation of the trend. As long as the Dollar remains under pressure and trade dynamics worsen, we continue to look for short opportunities in this market.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, which reinforces the directional bias:
- AUD – WEAK (3/5)
- GBP – WEAK (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
These insights help validate your trades, particularly in pairs where USD strength remains a key factor. Cross rates analysis and the latest COT report provide a clearer picture of which currencies are under pressure and which are poised to gain.
Final Thoughts
The ongoing trade tensions and volatility in cross-currency pairs present unique opportunities for traders. By adopting forex swing trading strategies, you can take advantage of mid- to long-term trends in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Traders should focus on position trading in forex techniques to capture market shifts while staying mindful of potential geopolitical risks and market sentiment changes.
As global uncertainty continues, careful cross rates analysis and the monitoring of key technical indicators like MACD and RSI will be crucial to staying ahead of market movements.