Market Overview
As global trade dynamics shift under President Trump’s tariff policies, the forex market has experienced significant volatility. Several nations are negotiating trade deals to protect their economies from the ongoing uncertainty. The White House recently announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs, although President Trump indicated that tariff exclusions would be short-lived—particularly for smartphones and computers. Analysts remain cautious, as the broader tariff measures remain in place.
The European Central Bank (ECB) responded to economic uncertainty by cutting rates by 25 basis points, aiming to support the economy. Despite this, concerns about a potential stagflationary outlook persist. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed will wait for more data before adjusting interest rates. However, Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies risk pushing inflation and employment further away from the Fed’s targets, adding to market uncertainty.
As these uncertainties unfold, forex market trend analysis will likely focus on the movements of the U.S. Dollar and other key currencies. Analysts expect gold to remain a safe haven as geopolitical risks persist, with forex swing trading strategies likely to capitalize on these tr
Market Analysis
There will be no precious metals report on Friday, April 18 due to the Good Friday holiday, as most markets will be closed. This could result in a quieter trading session for GOLD and SILVER, so traders should keep this in mind when planning their trades.
GBPUSD
The Pound is showing a resurgence, supported by bullish momentum in the MACD and RSI. As the Dollar weakens, we expect continued upside in the GBP/USD pair. Traders should focus on position trading in forex for longer-term gains, as the structural trend remains intact.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar continues to consolidate, but early signs of bullish momentum are present, with the MACD and RSI improving. However, the EMA200 presents resistance, and traders should wait for confirmation before committing to long positions. The underlying momentum remains bullish, but caution is advised.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi has shown bullish potential, but after hitting resistance at 0.59796, it quickly retracted. The MACD shows increasing volume, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting a potential for bullish continuation. However, the market remains cautious due to expected sideways price action. Traders should remain watchful for a breakout.
EURUSD
The Euro remains strong, supported by bullish movement in both the MACD and RSI. While the RSI reached overbought levels, a sharp drop in price suggests a continuation of bullish sentiment. The MACD confirms the upward momentum. Traders should continue looking for buying opportunities, while being cautious of any short-term retracements.
USDJPY
The Yen is experiencing renewed bearish pressure, with both the MACD and RSI showing increasing bearish momentum. Traders should look for short opportunities, particularly if USD/JPY breaks below key support levels. The safe-haven appeal of the Yen could increase as global uncertainties persist.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc remains within a consolidation phase. The MACD and RSI suggest a bearish bias, but with no clear directional movement, traders should wait for a break in price structure before committing to a position.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar shows limited price movement, but there are early signs of selling pressure building. MACD and RSI reflect this potential shift, and traders should wait for a clear break in price structure to confirm the directional bias. Until then, the outlook remains cautious.
COT Reports Analysis
Here’s the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) outlook, reinforcing the directional bias:
- AUD – WEAK (3/5)
- GBP – WEAK (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
This analysis helps validate your trades, particularly in pairs where USD strength remains a key factor. Cross rates analysis provides a clearer picture of which currencies are under pressure and which are poised to gain.
Final Thoughts
The ongoing trade tensions and volatility in cross-currency pairs present significant opportunities for forex traders. By utilizing forex swing trading strategies, traders can capture medium- to long-term trends in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Focusing on technical indicators like MACD and RSI will help traders navigate these markets effectively while managing risk.
Stay informed and ready to adjust positions as the global economic landscape continues to evolve.