Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices initially fell to a new low but rebounded near the close of yesterday’s session. Currently, prices are reporting modest gains. However, bearish sentiment remains strong due to mounting concerns over a weakening U.S. economy. Recent labor market data highlights this contraction, adding downward pressure on commodities.
Technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI both show increasing bearish momentum. The RSI is approaching oversold territory, and the 200-day EMA is trending downward—both reinforcing the bearish setup. While a short-term rally is underway, the broader outlook points toward a potential continuation of the downtrend.
SILVER
SILVER has entered a fully bearish phase, reaching new lows. Consecutive bearish bars on the MACD and an RSI reading in overbought territory—within a downtrend—signal strong selling momentum. A rejection at the 200-day EMA appears likely, suggesting additional downside risk for silver in the near term.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar remains firm despite glaring weaknesses in the broader economy:
- JOLTS job openings: 7.19M (vs. 7.49M expected)
- ADP Non-Farm Employment: 62K (down from 147K)
- GDP: -0.3% decline
- Core PCE Price Index: 0%
- Unemployment Claims: 241K (vs. 224K expected)
- Employment Cost Index: flat
- Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 (below 50 benchmark)
- Construction spending: down
- Vehicle sales: slightly above expectations
These indicators reflect a slowing economy, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut. While the dollar maintains its short-term strength, much hinges on Friday’s NFP report, which could either support the uptrend or trigger a reversal.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is exhibiting clear bearish signals. Price action has broken below the 200-day EMA and key support levels. The MACD confirms steady bearish pressure, and the RSI shows building downside momentum. A short-term retest of the EMA is possible, but the broader trend favors continued selling.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD is stuck in a consolidation range as traders await key economic data and developments in U.S.-China trade dynamics. The Aussie continues to honor its long-term bullish structure, but without a breakout from the current zone, directional conviction remains neutral.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD remains under bearish pressure but is currently stabilizing above the 200-day EMA and the key 0.58984 support level. A decisive move in either direction is needed. Until then, bearish setups remain more favorable unless the support holds with strength.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is facing growing bearish momentum, with both the MACD and RSI confirming downside acceleration. A break below the lower limit of the consolidation range would likely pave the way for extended losses, supported by weak Eurozone fundamentals.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY has slowed its rally as the greenback gains broader support. While speculation about a Bank of Japan rate hike continues, sentiment favors the dollar for now. Easing trade tensions across Asia further strengthen the dollar’s momentum against the yen.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is trending higher but remains capped below key resistance at 0.833313. Price action is choppy and could stay in a consolidation phase unless a clean break occurs. The uptrend remains intact as long as price stays above the major moving averages.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is range-bound, with no clear trend. Both price and indicators suggest consolidation. Traders should remain patient and wait for a breakout before committing to a directional bias.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – STRONG (1/5)
- EUR – WEAK (1/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (2/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – STRONG (1/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (2/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (3/5)
Final Thoughts
The forex market continues to respond to mixed signals—technical indicators show bearish setups in metals like GOLD and SILVER, while USD strength persists despite weak economic fundamentals. Major pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD suggest downward continuation, whereas AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain indecisive. As we await key economic data like the NFP report, traders should prepare for volatility and refine their long-term forex trading strategies with cross currency analysis, pair correlations, and proper forex risk management in swings.