Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have broken out of consolidation, rising with bullish momentum after a recent pullback. The bounce is primarily driven by the U.S. fiscal situation, as the U.S. House recently passed a tax bill (May 22, 2025) that could cost the deficit around $2.3 trillion to $3.1 trillion over the next decade. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are adding pressure to the market, with Israel preparing for potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Technically, both the MACD and RSI show growing bullish signals, supporting further upside in gold. The breakout from previous resistance levels suggests the potential for continued gains, possibly surpassing recent highs. While the market shows signs of overbought conditions, momentum is still in favor of the bulls, and we maintain a cautiously bullish outlook.
SILVER
Silver continues to show strength, with price action supported by the boundaries and EMA200. The MACD is signaling a buying move, and the RSI indicates potential for a bullish continuation. As gold continues to rally, silver is likely to follow suit, benefiting from the same market conditions. If silver breaks above its current resistance levels, we could see further price appreciation in the near term.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar is under pressure, showing signs of weakness. The MACD is displaying bearish momentum, while the RSI indicates the Dollar is nearing oversold levels. Despite the Fed’s cautious stance and ongoing trade tensions, there is potential for a short-term bounce toward the EMA200. However, unless sentiment shifts, we expect bearish continuation for the Dollar, especially as geopolitical and fiscal concerns weigh on investor confidence.
GBP/USD
The Pound is seeing bullish movement, supported by the recent market dynamics. The MACD is showing healthy volume, and the RSI is building upward momentum. However, the Pound is approaching key resistance levels, so traders should remain cautious as a potential pullback near resistance is possible. If the Pound breaks above resistance, we can expect continued upside potential.
AUD/USD
The Aussie Dollar remains range-bound, with consolidation in price action. Despite some bearish signals from the MACD and RSI, the market remains undecided on direction. A rate cut announcement from the RBA may serve as a catalyst for movement, and we advise caution until a clear break in structure occurs.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi shows signs of bullish continuation, as both MACD and RSI indicate rising momentum. Price action suggests a trend reversal may be in play. However, the pair remains technically range-bound, so confirmation of a breakout is required before taking a stronger directional stance.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has broken above the EMA200, but we remain cautious as resistance looms overhead. The MACD and RSI support a bullish trend, but prices need to break above the established boundary for a clear continuation higher. Until the breakout occurs, we maintain a cautious bullish bias, expecting volatility near resistance.
USD/JPY
The Yen continues to strengthen against the Dollar, with bearish momentum increasing as the MACD confirms continued downside pressure. The RSI is approaching oversold levels, suggesting a potential short-term correction before further downside. The broader bullish trend remains intact unless significant structural support is broken.
USD/CHF
The Franc is seeing strength against the Dollar, reflecting a shift toward risk-off sentiment. The MACD and RSI align with the bearish trend, signaling further downside for USD/CHF. We continue to favor bearish setups unless a reversal pattern occurs.
USD/CAD
The Canadian Dollar is continuing its bullish momentum against the Dollar, with the MACD and RSI showing strong selling pressure. We expect the bearish trend to persist in the near term, and further downside for USD/CAD is likely unless key support levels are reclaimed.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (3/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold’s bullish breakout continues as fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions support its upward momentum. Meanwhile, silver is showing strong potential to follow gold’s lead, driven by the same market conditions. The U.S. Dollar remains weak, and major currency pairs like GBP/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/USD are seeing varying trends as they respond to both technicals and broader macroeconomic events. Traders should keep an eye on geopolitical developments, central bank policies, and key resistance levels for further trade opportunities.