Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have extended their downward move, signaling further bearish momentum. Technical indicators support this view, with the MACD showing strong downside volume and the RSI reversing from recent overbought territory. A decisive break below the 3260.22 support level confirms a shift in trend, opening the door for deeper losses in the sessions ahead.
On the fundamental side, metals are under pressure following positive developments in global trade relations. In a joint announcement, the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China reciprocated by slashing tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. This trade de-escalation has significantly weakened the safe-haven appeal of gold.
SILVER
Silver remains trapped in consolidation, reflecting reduced market interest and low volatility. With no new fundamental drivers emerging, price action is expected to remain sideways. Both the MACD and RSI are flat, offering no compelling signals for breakout or breakdown. We await a fresh catalyst to reassess directional bias.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar has rallied to 101.786, driven by bullish market sentiment and optimism surrounding the trade deal. Technical indicators point to continued strength, with the MACD showing increasing volume and the RSI confirming strong buying pressure. The combination of fundamental and technical momentum suggests that the Dollar could climb even higher in the short term.
GBP/USD
The Pound is under heavy selling pressure despite previous strength. Both MACD and RSI indicate a reversal in momentum, with bearish volume increasing. The improving U.S. outlook and hawkish sentiment are placing downward pressure on GBP/USD, and further losses are anticipated.
AUD/USD
The Australian Dollar is experiencing increased selling, in line with our bearish projections. MACD and RSI both signal strong downside momentum. With risk sentiment favoring the U.S. Dollar and commodities struggling, the Aussie is likely to remain under pressure.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi is also facing losses despite typically benefiting from stronger Chinese growth. However, the broad Dollar strength is overwhelming positive sentiment. Technicals confirm the bearish structure, with MACD and RSI both reflecting rising selling volume. We expect further weakness unless the Kiwi can reclaim key resistance levels.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD continues its decline, following a recent gap fill and subsequent breakdown. Both MACD and RSI confirm the move with growing bearish momentum. We maintain a bearish stance and are watching for lower support levels to come into play.
USD/JPY
The Yen continues to weaken against the Dollar as Asian sentiment improves. Positive trade news has further reduced demand for the Yen as a safe haven. MACD and RSI show robust bullish signals for USD/JPY. We expect continued upward movement in the pair unless risk sentiment shifts abruptly.
USD/CHF
The Franc is losing ground against the Dollar as safe-haven demand fades. Technical indicators align with this move, with MACD and RSI showing bullish strength. We anticipate further gains for USD/CHF as the market favors risk-on positioning.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD has broken higher, reflecting sustained Dollar strength and Canadian Dollar weakness. The MACD and RSI confirm bullish volume and momentum. With the trade environment improving and global risk appetite increasing, USD/CAD remains positioned for further upside.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (4/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (3/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
A shift in global trade dynamics—highlighted by mutual tariff reductions between the U.S. and China—has reshaped the market landscape. Gold is losing its safe-haven bid, while the U.S. Dollar climbs on renewed confidence. Forex pairs like GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are reversing lower, while USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD extend bullish trends. Traders should monitor key technical levels, cross currency correlations, and broader macro sentiment as momentum shifts continue across major forex markets.