Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices remained largely unchanged, restrained by easing geopolitical tensions between Russia-Ukraine and Pakistan-India. The rare joint appearance of Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin at a peace convention signaled progress toward de-escalation. At the same time, improving trade relations between the U.S. and China are weighing on safe-haven demand, further favoring the U.S. Dollar over metals.
Technically, gold continues to respect bearish structures. The MACD shows increased bearish volume despite muted price action, and the RSI is fluctuating between extremes, signaling consolidation. Unless prices reclaim the 3260.22 level, downside continuation remains a strong possibility.
SILVER
Silver remains in a holding pattern, echoing gold’s indecisiveness. While fundamentals offer no clear catalyst, the technical setup also lacks conviction. The MACD and RSI are flat, reinforcing our neutral stance. We recommend range-based strategies for short-term traders until a breakout materializes.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar saw a pullback after softer-than-expected inflation data eased concerns about tariff-driven price spikes. This has moderated aggressive Fed rate cut expectations, especially with the 90-day tariff pause in place.
Technically, the MACD signals growing bearish momentum, while the RSI has normalized from overbought levels. A move toward the EMA200 is possible before any continuation higher. However, upcoming data like retail sales and PPI could shift sentiment dramatically—either triggering renewed rate cut expectations or reaffirming the Dollar’s resilience.
GBP/USD
The Pound has bounced off recent lows at 1.31804, showing signs of recovery. The MACD reflects growing bullish volume, while the RSI is gaining strength. The break above the EMA200 suggests a potential sentiment shift. Though we remain cautious, the setup hints at a possible trend reversal if momentum continues to build.
AUD/USD
The Aussie has broken out of its previous structure and entered a broader consolidation zone with bullish momentum. Both the MACD and RSI support further upside, particularly if risk sentiment stays positive. We anticipate continued buying pressure in the short term, though a confirmed breakout is still needed for strong directional conviction.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD is in consolidation, but signs of bullish momentum are emerging. The MACD is rising, and the RSI is trending higher. While still range-bound, the pair is gaining upward pressure. A confirmed breakout could open the door to more significant gains.
EUR/USD
The Euro’s recent climb appears to be a retracement rather than a reversal. The MACD shows increasing bullish volume, and the RSI is trending upward, but the broader structure remains bearish. We expect a retest of the EMA200, after which the downtrend may resume unless a breakout nullifies the current setup.
USD/JPY
The Yen is retracing after recent strength, driven by improving sentiment in Asia. The MACD and RSI are pointing to growing bearish momentum, with price approaching the EMA200. While the short-term bias leans bearish, the overall structure remains bullish, and a rebound could materialize if the correction holds above key support.
USD/CHF
The Franc is also undergoing a corrective pullback. Price is nearing the EMA200, with MACD and RSI reflecting increased bearish momentum. Despite short-term weakness, the long-term bullish trend is intact, and we expect a potential rebound following this consolidation phase.
USD/CAD
The Loonie has pulled back after touching recent highs, pressured by a shift in Canadian leadership. The appointment of Tim Hodgson as Natural Resources Minister under new Prime Minister Mark Carney has sparked optimism for Canada’s domestic growth agenda, though it introduces short-term volatility.
The MACD and RSI confirm increasing bearish momentum for USD/CAD. As the new government redirects its economic focus, the CAD may see some turbulence, but broader Dollar strength could cap any significant Loonie recovery.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (4/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (3/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
With geopolitical tensions easing and global trade conditions improving, the market is shifting away from safe-haven assets like gold and silver. The U.S. Dollar has pulled back on softer inflation expectations, but upcoming economic data may shift the narrative again. Major currency pairs are showing early signs of reversal or continued consolidation. Traders should closely monitor long-term forex trading strategies, use cross currency analysis, and apply volatility analysis in forex to navigate the upcoming macro shifts.