Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices are experiencing strong bullish momentum, breaking out of consolidation and approaching historic highs. The price rebounded off the EMA200 as expected, signaling strong buying interest. Now, the key question is whether this rally has enough strength to surpass previous record highs.
Marex analyst Edward Meir stated, “I think $3,000 is the next logical target, likely reached sometime over the next several months.” While recent CPI data indicated slower-than-expected inflation, analysts believe the impact of increased tariffs has not yet been fully reflected.
Lower inflation gives the Federal Reserve more room for interest rate cuts, which historically benefits gold as a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff hikes—raising duties on Chinese goods to 20% and imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports—add another layer of uncertainty. With speculation on whether the Fed will cut rates sooner than expected, upcoming PPI data will be critical in shaping market sentiment.
Technically, the MACD is showing increased bullish momentum, while the RSI remains stable despite the strong rally, indicating further room for upside. Given the strong technical structure, buying opportunities remain favorable in the coming days.
SILVER
Silver prices are also seeing increased bullish movement. The MACD is approaching a potential crossover, while the RSI is stabilizing despite high price movement, reinforcing the possibility of continued upside. Given gold’s strength, silver is expected to follow suit. We continue to look for more buying opportunities as market conditions align with our bullish outlook.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The dollar is currently consolidating, failing to react strongly to market data. Although expectations for a rate cut have been delayed, the dollar remains vulnerable due to Trump’s inflationary policies. Traders are awaiting clearer signals before committing to a major directional move.
The MACD and RSI are both steady in the middle, reflecting market indecision. However, with overall price action leaning bearish, the longer-term outlook suggests further USD weakness.
GBPUSD
The British pound is holding steady after reaching new highs. While the market remains in consolidation, the technical structure suggests potential for continued growth in the coming days.
The MACD is trending upward, while the RSI is stabilizing despite price movement, reinforcing bullish momentum. Most importantly, GBPUSD has broken above a key resistance zone, increasing the likelihood of further upside continuation.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar is strengthening as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. dollar grows. However, its risk-sensitive nature means that if global risk sentiment deteriorates, the AUD could face headwinds.
The MACD is showing increased buying volume, while the RSI is approaching overbought conditions. While further upside is expected, we remain cautious of a potential reversal if the dollar regains strength.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate while maintaining an upward trajectory. Similar to the AUD, the RSI is dropping despite minimal price movement, signaling a steady increase in bullish momentum. The MACD remains in a stable uptrend, indicating that NZDUSD could see further gains in the coming days.
EURUSD
The euro is stabilizing as traders await further clarity on U.S. policy moves. While the RSI and MACD are showing mixed signals, price action suggests the potential for a sudden breakout. If the dollar weakens further, EURUSD could see a sharp move higher.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to weaken as expected. It briefly tested the EMA200 before pulling back. The MACD is increasing in volume, while the RSI remains stable, indicating that the bearish trend remains intact.
Fundamentally, expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates this year support yen strength. Wage hikes in Japan have boosted consumer spending and inflation, providing the BOJ with room for further rate increases.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc is experiencing increased selling momentum, failing to breach the EMA200 resistance. The MACD is in bearish territory, while the RSI remains neutral. Given the weakness in buying interest, we maintain a bearish outlook on USDCHF, looking for further selling opportunities.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar remains in consolidation. However, Trump’s trade policies could weigh on the CAD in the coming days. The Bank of Canada recently cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points, citing concerns over inflation and weaker growth due to tariff uncertainty.
Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated, “Tariffs pose inflation pressures to the world economy, which would be a nightmare for central banks… Even though central banks can cut rates to offset the negative impact on growth, inflation concerns might ultimately limit what they can do.”
Given this backdrop, we will monitor Trump’s next moves and Canada’s response closely. Any additional tariffs could further weaken the CAD.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (1/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Conclusion
With statistical forex analysis, data-driven trading strategies, and quantitative risk assessment, this update highlights key trends in forex and commodity markets. Machine learning forex models and algorithmic market predictions suggest that economic data and policy shifts will play a critical role in shaping price movements in the coming weeks.
Traders should monitor inflation data, central bank decisions, and geopolitical developments closely, as these factors will drive market sentiment. With gold nearing record highs and USD weakness persisting, market volatility is expected to remain elevated.