Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold Price Rebounds sharply, reaching the EMA200—a move that aligns with our previous expectations, though the intensity of the bounce was unexpected. This rally reflects renewed weakness in the U.S. Dollar, primarily driven by disinflationary economic data.
Technically, the setup favors further upside. The MACD shows rising bullish volume, and the RSI is climbing out of oversold territory. While the current bounce is promising, there’s a strong chance gold could enter a broader consolidation range. Until a breakout occurs, we maintain a cautiously bullish stance and will monitor for confirmation above key resistance levels.
SILVER
Silver remains locked in a tight consolidation range, showing little directional commitment. As MACD and RSI indicators flatten, we continue to avoid setting directional bias unless you’re trading within the established boundaries. A decisive breakout will be necessary to initiate new positions.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar is weakening due to disinflationary U.S. data:
- Core CPI: +0.2% (vs. 0.3% forecast)
- Core PPI: -0.4% contraction
- Core Retail Sales: +0.1% (vs. 0.3% expected)
These softer prints suggest easing price pressure, which undermines previous hawkish Fed expectations based on strong jobs data. Markets now price in a 75.4% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by September, according to LSEG.
Technically, the Dollar is sitting on its EMA200. The MACD shows weakening bullish volume, and RSI continues to drift lower. A break below this key average could flip sentiment bearish. Until a confirmed break occurs, we remain neutral.
GBP/USD
The Pound continues to consolidate within a narrow range. Technical indicators—MACD and RSI—remain neutral, lacking momentum. Without a breakout, this pair is best avoided for now. A move above or below the range will provide clearer trade opportunities.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD remains directionless, echoing overall uncertainty in the Dollar. Both MACD and RSI remain neutral, and no trend has taken hold. We expect continued consolidation unless U.S. or China-related catalysts emerge to drive volatility.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi is also consolidating but shows early signs of weakness. MACD and RSI indicate rising bearish momentum. However, we need a break below key support to confirm the shift in structure. Until then, we remain neutral with a bearish lean.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is compressed between 1.11747 resistance and the EMA200, forming a tight high-tension range. MACD leans neutral to slightly bearish, while RSI also suggests slight downside bias. A clean break in either direction is needed to define the next move. Until then, we remain cautious.
USD/JPY
The Yen continues to strengthen, pushing USD/JPY lower. MACD and RSI confirm the bearish momentum, and we expect further downside as long as Dollar weakness persists. This aligns with our previous forecasts favoring JPY strength. Look for potential support near the EMA200 or the 145.00 zone.
USD/CHF
The Franc is rallying against the Dollar. Both MACD and RSI are shifting bearish, indicating that sellers are gaining control. If price breaks current levels, we may see an extended correction. This move is being fueled by broader risk appetite and a softer Dollar environment.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is weakening after failing to sustain recent highs. The MACD shows increasing bearish volume, and the RSI is nearing oversold conditions. Key support lies near 1.39410 and the EMA200, where a technical bounce may occur. Until price breaks out of the broader range, we remain neutral.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (4/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (3/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold’s rebound to the EMA200 and the Dollar’s softening on disinflationary data mark a potential pivot in short-term market sentiment. While gold shows bullish technicals, the broader picture still demands caution until consolidation resolves. Major forex pairs remain mixed—consolidating or building early bias. Keep an eye on upcoming U.S. data (PPI, retail sales, Fed commentary) for direction. As always, traders should focus on long-term forex trading strategy, cross currency analysis, and proper risk management amid shifting momentum.