Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices are under heightened selling pressure after the Trump administration reported “substantial” progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. While Beijing echoed the sentiment, no concrete details have been released. Additionally, a new U.S.-UK trade agreement further boosted global market confidence, weighing on safe-haven demand.
A key social media post from former President Trump noted a tariff drop to 80% from a previously proposed 140%, reinforcing optimism around easing tensions. Technically, the MACD signals strong bearish momentum, and the RSI remains neutral, having briefly bounced from oversold levels. Price has broken below the EMA200 and the lower end of the consolidation zone. However, the 3260.22 support level holds for now, and we retain a cautiously optimistic bias pending confirmation.
SILVER
Silver prices are stuck in consolidation, with bearish signals dominating. Despite rising volume, the MACD fails to confirm bullish strength, and the RSI’s mild upward curve remains insufficient to drive a recovery. Without touching oversold levels or breaking resistance, we continue to watch for downside risk.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar gapped higher and shows continued bullish potential. The MACD supports strong upside momentum, and the RSI, having pulled back from overbought territory, suggests room for more gains. Although gaps often get filled, sentiment remains bullish. We recommend cautious optimism for continued Dollar strength.
GBP/USD
The Pound remains directionless, stuck in consolidation. However, technicals are hinting at downside potential. The MACD is flattening, and RSI tilts slightly bearish. We hold a neutral stance but lean toward a short bias unless key resistance levels are broken.
AUD/USD
The Aussie Dollar is facing renewed bearish momentum after being rejected at the EMA200. MACD shows weakening bullish volume, while the RSI sits near overbought territory. This technical alignment supports a bearish outlook, and we expect downside continuation barring a surprise shift in sentiment.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD has seen a short-term lift but remains in a bearish macro structure. Price continues to respect the 0.59288 resistance level, and technical indicators back further downside. The MACD shows some buying pressure, yet the RSI reflects overbought signals. Unless resistance breaks, the bias remains bearish.
EUR/USD
The Euro is steadily declining, with MACD signaling rising selling volume. The RSI has normalized, giving room for more downward movement. With no structural support in play, we maintain a bearish stance on EUR/USD.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is gaining strength, propelled by waning demand for safe havens amid U.S.-China trade optimism. MACD and RSI both indicate strong bullish conditions. We anticipate continued upward movement as risk-on sentiment favors the U.S. Dollar.
USD/CHF
The Franc has broken out of consolidation and is moving higher. Technical indicators support the bullish shift—MACD shows rising volume, and RSI trends upward. While there’s potential for a gap fill, we continue to favor long opportunities in this pair.
USD/CAD
The Canadian Dollar is falling sharply, driven by a strengthening U.S. Dollar. USD/CAD has broken through previous resistance, confirming bullish breakout momentum. Both MACD and RSI support further upside, and we expect this trend to persist in the short term.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (4/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (3/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Trade optimism is reshaping global market sentiment, triggering sharp moves across forex and commodity markets. Gold has fallen on reduced safe-haven demand, while the Dollar is gaining momentum thanks to strong technicals and trade deal progress. Pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD are rolling over into bearish trends, while USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD show further upside. As volatility increases, traders should focus on forex pair correlation, long-term swing setups, and risk management strategies aligned with market momentum and macro developments.