Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have surged, breaking out of consolidation, with bullish momentum continuing to build. The recent bounce is largely driven by concerns surrounding the U.S. fiscal situation, including President Trump’s delayed tariff plans. The House recently passed a tax bill, expected to widen the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade. These fiscal issues, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, are pushing gold prices higher as the Dollar weakens.
Both MACD and RSI are showing strong bullish momentum, supporting the continuation of the uptrend. We remain bullish on gold and will monitor for further buying opportunities as the technical and fundamental landscape aligns in favor of continued upside.
SILVER
Silver is following gold’s lead, showing bullish movement with the MACD and RSI indicating increased buying momentum. While silver remains below historical highs, it is gaining strength, with the next significant resistance level at 33.5028. A break above this level could signal more upside potential, and we will look for buying opportunities as silver follows gold’s rally.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar continues to face weakness amid U.S. fiscal concerns and tariff uncertainty. The MACD and RSI reflect growing bearish pressure, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. Additionally, President Trump’s delay on tariffs has reduced some of the U.S.’s global economic leverage, contributing to Dollar weakness. We expect further downside movement in the Dollar unless economic data or geopolitical events provide a reversal.
GBP/USD
The Pound is benefiting from Dollar weakness, with bullish momentum continuing. The MACD and RSI both indicate increased buying volume, supporting further upside potential. However, price action has approached key resistance levels, so a pullback is possible before a breakout. Continued strength in GBP/USD is likely as long as the broader Dollar weakness persists.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD has broken out of consolidation, with the MACD and RSI reflecting bullish momentum. The Aussie Dollar is benefiting from Dollar weakness, particularly after the delayed tariff threat. With the RBA’s rate cut probability increasing, traders are cautious, but the pair is likely to continue its bullish trend in the near term. We remain optimistic for further upside, pending clear breakout confirmation.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD shows strong bullish potential with increasing buying momentum confirmed by both the MACD and RSI. However, the pair remains trapped below key resistance levels. With the RBNZ expected to cut rates, NZD/USD may experience some short-term weakness, but we expect further upside once key resistance is cleared. We remain cautiously optimistic on the Kiwi.
EUR/USD
The Euro has broken above its consolidation zone, benefiting from Dollar weakness and ongoing U.S.-EU trade discussions. Both MACD and RSI indicate a healthy bullish trend, though the RSI is nearing overbought levels, suggesting a potential pullback. A further break above resistance would confirm the Euro’s continued strength.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is in a bearish trend as the Yen continues to gain strength. Both the MACD and RSI confirm increasing bearish momentum, suggesting further downside. We expect the Yen to remain strong unless global sentiment shifts. The broader market bias remains bearish for USD/JPY, and we look for continued selling opportunities.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is showing increased selling pressure. The MACD and RSI confirm bearish momentum as the Dollar weakens against the Swiss Franc. Price is nearing key support, and a breakdown here would confirm further downside. We expect continued selling unless market sentiment shifts.
USD/CAD
The Canadian Dollar is gaining strength after the U.S. rescinded some of its tariff threats. The Dollar’s weakness, combined with increased risk appetite, is pushing USD/CAD lower. Both MACD and RSI show bearish momentum, and we expect the bearish trend to continue. We will monitor for further selling opportunities in USD/CAD.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (2/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold continues to benefit from the U.S. fiscal and trade concerns, pushing prices higher. Silver is following suit, showing bullish potential as it rises alongside gold. The U.S. Dollar remains under pressure, offering buying opportunities in Dollar-cross pairs like GBP/USD and AUD/USD. As geopolitical risks and fiscal deficits mount, gold remains the primary beneficiary. Watch for further developments in U.S.-China trade talks and fiscal policy, which will likely influence market sentiment in the coming sessions.