Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices rose significantly during the Asian session as renewed uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path came into focus. This was triggered by stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Adding fuel to the fire, former President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on non-U.S.-produced movies and hinted at forthcoming pharmaceutical tariffs—shaking market confidence.
Technically, both the MACD and RSI are climbing steadily, reinforcing a bullish setup. We anticipate further buying interest as geopolitical and economic volatility intensifies.
SILVER
Silver reversed back to a buying position after briefly breaking below recent lows. While the rebound is notable, price action remains confined within a larger consolidation zone. As a result, the outlook for silver is mixed—short-term movement may trend sideways before a clearer direction emerges.
With markets still adjusting to Trump’s unexpected tariff policies, sentiment around metals like silver remains highly reactive and susceptible to volatility.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar is trading in consolidation as investors await more direction from the Fed. Market uncertainty is amplified by Trump’s new trade actions. However, technical indicators still lean toward a bullish trend:
- MACD: Flattened—signals indecision
- RSI: Hovering near overbought levels
Given these mixed signals, we maintain a cautiously bullish bias while remaining alert to any hawkish or dovish shift from upcoming Fed commentary.
GBP/USD
The Pound is range-bound as traders await signals from the Fed. Growing expectations that the Fed will maintain current interest rates could weaken the Dollar, giving the Pound a slight bullish edge.
Although momentum is limited for now, the broader bias remains bullish. We’re eyeing potential buying opportunities on any confirmed breakout.
AUD/USD
The Aussie is stuck below resistance at 0.64801, showing signs of extended consolidation. Although our bias remains bullish, the technical setup suggests possible sideways movement in the near term:
- MACD: Showing downward momentum
- RSI: Nearing oversold territory
A breakout above resistance will be key for confirming the next bullish leg.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi is hovering near the 0.59796 level and shows signs of potential continuation to the upside. However, technical indicators present mixed signals:
- MACD: Starting to shift bearish
- RSI: Indicating oversold conditions
This divergence points to a likely short-term dip before a possible bullish continuation. We’ll monitor for confirmation.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to move sideways within a tight consolidation range. Without a clear structural breakout, we maintain a neutral stance on EUR/USD.
USD/JPY
The Yen is beginning to show early bearish signs, though no definitive breakdown has occurred. Current support comes from the EMA200:
- MACD: Likely to turn bearish
- RSI: Approaching overbought levels
The setup points to a possible bearish move, but confirmation is needed before acting on the signal.
USD/CHF
The Franc remains in consolidation, with a slight bullish bias. However, a confirmed breakout is needed to validate further upside potential.
USD/CAD
The Loonie continues to trade within a tight range, closely tracking the EMA200. No strong directional signal has emerged, so we remain neutral until a decisive breakout occurs.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (2/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – STRONG (2/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (2/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
As global markets respond to surprise trade announcements and shifting Fed expectations, GOLD leads with bullish strength, supported by strong technicals. SILVER remains range-bound with reactive sentiment. Meanwhile, major currency pairs like GBP/USD and NZD/USD hold bullish potential, but confirmation is key. The Dollar maintains a bullish undertone, but all eyes are on upcoming Fed signals. Traders should remain nimble, using cross currency analysis and volatility-focused forex risk management to stay ahead in today’s unpredictable environment.