Introduction
This week’s markets are reacting sharply to newly imposed U.S. tariffs, triggering inflation fears, dollar sell-offs, and a renewed interest in safe-haven assets. These macroeconomic shocks are reshaping weekly forex trading plans, especially for traders utilizing forex swing trading strategies and position trading in forex. Rising volatility in cross-currency pairs adds fuel to technical setups, while cross rates analysis becomes essential in identifying short- and long-term opportunities.
GOLD
GOLD has hit a new high as both geopolitical unrest and trade tensions intensify. The price surge is supported by growing bullish volume on the MACD and strong momentum on the RSI, both suggesting continued buying pressure. A short-term retracement could occur to normalize prices, but the overall outlook remains bullish. Traders can prepare for additional upside if the trade conflict worsens or safe-haven demand increases. This setup aligns perfectly with high-confidence forex swing trading strategies in commodities.
SILVER
SILVER is currently consolidating after the tariff announcements, functioning partly as a hedge to GOLD. While there is increased buying interest, the RSI and MACD are not signaling a clear breakout just yet. Given this neutral setup, we remain patient. Once the market absorbs recent shocks, this pair may offer late-stage swing entries. This fits neatly within broader position trading in forex, where timing the shift in sentiment is crucial.
DXY
The Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a sharp drop, reflecting immediate investor reaction to tariff uncertainty. Both the MACD and RSI show signs of normalization after the initial sell-off, but the reliability of these indicators is temporarily reduced due to the magnitude of the market gap. We anticipate continued high volatility, especially in cross-currency pairs involving the USD. Traders should remain cautious and consider stepping back until conditions stabilize.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD surged as the dollar weakened. The MACD and RSI confirm strong buying momentum and volume. With expectations of continued dollar pressure, the Pound offers compelling long-side swing setups. This pair is central to our weekly forex trading plans, especially for traders who rely on trend continuation signals.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD mirrored GBPUSD in its response to the dollar slump. Both momentum and volume indicators support continued buying in the near term. This pair offers an ideal case for forex swing trading strategies, particularly when analyzed in relation to AUDJPY or AUDNZD through cross rates analysis.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD is more technically predictable than AUD at the moment, showing a clean bounce from the 0.56859 support level. The MACD and RSI suggest potential for continued upside, although we remain conservative due to the proximity to recent news. Given the current landscape, this pair offers short-term long setups but with a cautious tone—a typical scenario in position trading in forex.
EURUSD
EURUSD is performing as anticipated, extending its bullish movement. Technical indicators are strongly supportive of further gains, with both MACD and RSI flashing green signals. Still, traders should prepare for a brief retracement before continuation. This pair remains an essential focus in our weekly forex trading plans.
USDJPY
USDJPY is seeing inflows into the Yen, a traditional safe-haven asset, following broader risk-off sentiment. The recent rejection at the EMA200 confirmed a bearish continuation. The MACD indicates growing bearish volume, supporting our bias toward more downside. This pair offers excellent opportunities in swing setups for risk-off traders and is particularly relevant to volatility in cross-currency pairs like EURJPY and AUDJPY.
USDCHF
USDCHF is also moving in line with safe-haven demand, with investors turning to the Swiss Franc. Technical signals on both MACD and RSI show strong selling momentum and volume. More downside is likely in the coming days, which may further support forex swing trading strategies focused on USD weakness.
USDCAD
USDCAD is holding within a volatile range, reflecting uncertainty in energy markets and U.S.-Canada trade. Despite signs of CAD strength, we are waiting for a confirmed break of structure before building a bias. With fundamentals still developing, this pair is best suited for position trading in forex, where traders await a more defined trend before entering.
COT Reports
Analyzing the Commitment of Traders (COT) data provides valuable sentiment clues across currencies and metals:
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (3/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
These sentiment scores are integral for both cross rates analysis and swing positioning, helping traders determine which currencies are gaining or losing institutional support.
Conclusion
Trump’s sweeping tariffs have shaken global markets, leading to surges in safe-haven assets and weakening the U.S. dollar. GOLD and SILVER are poised for bullish continuations, while the forex majors are adjusting to post-announcement volatility. With the market in flux, this is a critical time for traders to align with solid weekly forex trading plans, adapt through reliable forex swing trading strategies, and use precise cross rates analysis to navigate the ripple effects of escalating trade tensions.