Introduction
This week’s weekly forex trading plans focus on the continued volatility in both metals and major currency pairs. Key market movers include renewed trade tensions, central bank sentiment, and COT report shifts—factors especially relevant to position trading in forex.
GOLD
GOLD surged significantly in line with our projections, influenced heavily by the market’s reaction to Trump’s proposed tariff adjustments. This move fits well with forex swing trading strategies, as technical indicators show continued strength. The MACD, though crossing lower, reflects strong bullish volume—an early swing buy signal. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving sideways while price continues upward, signaling underlying momentum. We expect a push toward $3,600–$3,800/oz depending on geopolitical developments. This presents high-probability swing opportunities in commodities that mirror volatility in cross-currency pairs.
SILVER
SILVER is poised to climb further, tracking GOLD’s momentum. The MACD shows rising bullish volume, which supports upside continuation. Meanwhile, the RSI confirms building momentum. Traders focused on weekly forex trading plans can look to Silver for alternative exposure to metal-backed inflation hedges.
DXY
The DXY broke lower and is now consolidating between 104.607 and 104.084. Both the MACD and RSI reflect a neutral to bearish bias. Position traders should wait for a breakout or reversal confirmation before engaging, especially given the cross rates analysis complexity involving safe-haven flows.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD remains range-bound as the market awaits further clarity on US tariff policy. The MACD and RSI both confirm a flat, consolidative pattern. The best strategy here is to stay patient. This pair could become a strong swing candidate once the news breaks, aligning with disciplined forex swing trading strategies.
AUDUSD
The Aussie continues to decline under sustained selling pressure. The MACD shows increasing bearish volume, while the RSI confirms falling momentum, suggesting more downside. AUD’s weakness, paired with its cross-pair relationships like AUDJPY and AUDNZD, underpins our cross rates analysis and justifies short setups.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD has broken below a key support level. The resistance at 0.56859 is holding firm and preventing any upward retracement. Meanwhile, the RSI is retreating from overbought territory, further supporting a bearish outlook. For those using position trading in forex, this pair offers a clear sell bias as volatility in cross-currency pairs increases.
EURUSD
EURUSD retraced after a false breakout and now sits in consolidation. Uncertainty surrounding EU-US relations is stalling further movement. This makes it ideal for longer-term traders monitoring volatility in cross-currency pairs to plan entries once a decisive move forms.
USDJPY
USDJPY is currently testing the EMA200 with a possible reversal setup forming. The RSI recently registered oversold conditions at a higher swing low, suggesting a potential bounce. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing bullish divergence with increasing volume. If buying pressure builds, this may create a swing opportunity, especially when paired with cross-pairs like EURJPY and CHFJPY under careful cross rates analysis.
USDCHF
USDCHF recently invalidated its bearish continuation outlook with a sudden bullish move. It is now consolidating, while the MACD and RSI show early signs of building bullish strength. For now, it’s best to hold off until a clearer breakout emerges. This pair fits well within position trading in forex, especially when factoring in its correlation with EURCHF.
USDCAD
USDCAD remains overall bearish, but signals are emerging that suggest a potential reversal. The MACD shows rising bullish volume, and the RSI is gaining momentum. With global trade sentiment evolving, this pair should be part of your weekly forex trading plans as a potential buy candidate if risk-on sentiment strengthens.
COT Reports
Analyzing the Commitment of Traders (COT) data reveals the following sentiment ranking:
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (3/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
These sentiment readings are crucial when developing forex swing trading strategies and help identify strong versus weak currencies across the board. They also reinforce our cross rates analysis to highlight the highest-probability trade setups.
Conclusion
This week’s outlook shows a mix of strong metals momentum and consolidating currencies awaiting macro catalysts. Swing traders and position holders should monitor tariff announcements, precious metals as safe-haven alternatives, and volatility in cross-currency pairs like EURJPY and AUDNZD. Our weekly forex trading plans emphasize patience, precision, and alignment with technical and fundamental confluence.