Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have surged, confirming our earlier bullish outlook. The market is showing robust upward momentum, supported by positive signals from both the MACD and RSI. However, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, indicating a possible short-term pullback or consolidation. Despite this, we expect continued buying pressure, especially as geopolitical tensions rise—most notably between India and Pakistan. A potential test of new historic highs is on the horizon.
SILVER
Silver remains in a consolidation phase, though bullish momentum is clearly increasing. The MACD is showing rising volume, while the RSI is creeping into overbought territory. These technicals suggest that while strength is building, a period of normalization may be needed before a breakout. We remain neutral until a decisive move confirms direction.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar is still in consolidation, with no strong directional conviction. Market participants are awaiting clarity from the Federal Reserve, which has hinted at a delay in cutting rates. This hawkish lean is keeping the Dollar range-bound for now, and we maintain a neutral stance until fresh policy signals emerge.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is consolidating but continues to hold a mild bullish tone. With the Fed maintaining uncertainty and the Dollar on pause, the Pound may see upward pressure. However, we expect this pair to remain range-bound until clearer catalysts surface.
AUD/USD
The Aussie is regaining bullish traction after successfully retesting the EMA200. Despite bearish MACD divergence, increased buying volume and intact bullish structure support a positive outlook. The RSI is nearing overbought territory, so a brief pullback may occur. However, we maintain our bullish stance in the short term.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD is following a similar path to the Aussie. The pair is holding key levels above 0.59400, and while the EMA200 has been tested, structural integrity remains. The MACD and RSI are lagging behind price movement, suggesting indicators have yet to fully reflect the bullish sentiment. We expect continued upside unless support breaks convincingly.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD remains locked in consolidation. Technicals are inconclusive, and no breakout has occurred. As such, we maintain a neutral bias until clear directional signals emerge.
USD/JPY
The Yen has resumed its bearish path following weakness in Asian equities, including Japan. This has reduced demand for safe-haven Yen. Interestingly, the MACD is showing bullish volume and the RSI has bounced from oversold territory—pointing to a short-term rally in USD/JPY. However, fundamentals remain mixed, so we proceed with caution.
USD/CHF
The Franc is stuck in volatile sideways movement, contained within a broad consolidation range. With conflicting technical and fundamental signals, we advise neutral positioning or range-based strategies until a clearer breakout emerges.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is also in a tight consolidation pattern, with no directional clarity. The pair is hovering around major structural levels. Until we see a clean breakout to the upside or downside, we remain neutral on this pair.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (2/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – STRONG (2/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (2/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold continues to lead the charge amid rising geopolitical tensions, showing strong potential to test new highs. Silver builds strength within consolidation, while the Dollar remains stuck, awaiting direction from the Fed. Commodity pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD show bullish setups, while safe-haven pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF remain conflicted. Traders should focus on long-term forex trading strategies, closely monitor forex pair correlation, and apply volatility analysis in forex to navigate the evolving landscape with precision.