Introduction
The newly enforced and upcoming tariffs from the United States are reshaping global market sentiment. With baseline tariffs at 10% across all imports (excluding Canada, Mexico, and Belarus), additional automotive and aluminum/steel duties, and reciprocal tariffs targeting over 60 countries, the global economic outlook is being tested. Countries like China and the EU have announced countermeasures, including rare earth export controls and duties on U.S. agriculture and tech goods.
The result? Uncertainty and escalating tension—fuel for market volatility in cross-currency pairs and a crucial consideration for this week’s forex swing trading strategies. The Fed is in a holding pattern, and rate cut probabilities are rising. From a trading perspective, this creates the perfect backdrop for cautious yet opportunistic position trading in forex, where fundamentals are now as critical as technical signals.
GOLD
GOLD prices have become highly volatile and are now risky to trade without sufficient capital. The MACD and RSI are currently showing bearish continuation signals, yet during the Asian session, the market printed a strong bullish candle. Despite this, price action suggests a potential for another sell-off. This unexpected drop may be caused by profit-taking or margin call coverage from losses in other markets. It’s plausible that we’re entering a negative feedback loop, where each sell-off prompts more selling. At this point, we’re on the sidelines. The market is moving too aggressively for reliable swing positioning, which counters the usual expectations in traditional forex swing trading strategies.
SILVER
SILVER has mirrored GOLD’s behavior, dropping sharply after the latter’s decline. Both the MACD and RSI confirm this bearish momentum with increasing volume. We expect prices to continue sliding unless a reversal pattern emerges. Silver is currently not a favorable buy-side opportunity for position trading in forex, especially under the risk-off sentiment shaking metals and currencies alike.
DXY
The Dollar Index (DXY) surged unexpectedly after the latest tariff news. The MACD reveals a spike in bullish volume while the RSI shows that buying pressure is stabilizing. While the price has moved higher, the overall structure remains bearish. The EMA200 may still act as significant resistance. Despite the upward push, there’s no full structural reversal yet. For traders who rely on cross rates analysis, this is a critical zone to observe before placing directional bets.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is now under strong selling pressure, reversing last week’s bullish move. The MACD and RSI both indicate growing bearish momentum and volume. A structural breakdown has occurred, which likely opens the door for continued downside in the short term. This makes the pair attractive to traders focusing on short-biased forex swing trading strategies as well as conservative entries in weekly forex trading plans.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD continues to weaken after a bearish breakout last week. Momentum indicators are clearly bearish, and price action is unsustainable at current levels. While we expect continued selling, we advise caution. Market conditions are highly unstable, and sentiment could reverse quickly. For now, the pair remains a viable short candidate under position trading in forex scenarios.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD behaved similarly to the Aussie, but its move was sharper and more unpredictable. While the pair briefly shifted into a bullish stance, risk sentiment pulled it right back down. The MACD and RSI show renewed bearish strength. We’re eyeing more downside opportunities but approaching cautiously due to increased volatility in cross-currency pairs like NZDJPY and NZDCHF.
EURUSD
EURUSD is facing downside pressure, largely because the EU is directly targeted by high reciprocal tariffs. Until negotiations ease the strain, we anticipate more weakness in the Euro. This sentiment is validated by bearish MACD and RSI readings. From a technical and fundamental standpoint, this pair supports sell setups within structured weekly forex trading plans.
USDJPY
USDJPY shows strong demand for the Yen as investors turn to safer assets. Despite stagnant prices, the RSI and MACD reveal declining volume and buying strength—signals of continued bearish structure. Price action has shifted to the downside, and unless new data changes sentiment, we will continue targeting sell setups. This reflects a textbook reaction under cross rates analysis, where JPY’s strength becomes more attractive in a risk-off market.
USDCHF
USDCHF is showing a similar pattern to USDJPY. The Swiss Franc is acting as a hedge against dollar risks, attracting capital in times of global uncertainty. Both RSI and MACD support further downside. We are actively watching for follow-through setups on the short side. The behavior of this pair also adds insight into current volatility in cross-currency pairs across European safe-haven flows.
USDCAD
USDCAD continues to reflect CAD weakness. After briefly touching the EMA200 and the bottom of its consolidation zone, price is now showing bullish signals. MACD and RSI suggest a possible reversal back into the range. If price breaks above the EMA200 and holds, we will consider bullish opportunities. This potential setup is particularly relevant to position trading in forex, where confirmation of a breakout offers strong reward-to-risk scenarios.
COT Reports
Here’s a snapshot of the Commitment of Traders (COT) sentiment this week:
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (3/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – WEAK (3/5)
These rankings help confirm cross rates analysis and validate trends for institutional positioning, which can guide swing entries and exits in key pairs and metals.
Conclusion
This week’s market landscape is shaped by aggressive tariff policies and reactive global countermeasures. GOLD and SILVER are facing unexpected profit-taking pressures, while safe-haven currencies like the Yen and Swiss Franc are gaining ground. The Dollar Index remains in flux, defying some expectations but still showing bearish structural tendencies. These developments inject significant volatility in cross-currency pairs, offering opportunities for those applying disciplined forex swing trading strategies and longer-view position trading in forex. Patience, timing, and news-awareness are more critical than ever in executing your weekly forex trading plans.