Following the implementation of a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports by the U.S. on February 4, 2025, President Trump expressed no urgency in speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the growing trade war. In retaliation, China has imposed tariffs on select U.S. goods, including coal and agricultural machinery, effective February 10, 2025. This includes a strategic expansion of export controls on critical minerals, which are essential for high-tech industries.
While the tariffs signify a growing divide, China’s approach has been firm yet measured, signaling its intent to counter U.S. actions without further escalating the trade war. Meanwhile, the broader economic environment in the U.S. remains volatile, exacerbated by speculation of possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, fueled by Trump’s tariff policies.
Gold: Safe-Haven Amidst Volatility
Gold has reached new historic highs as investors seek safe-haven assets in this uncertain market. The delay in tariffs has caused traders to retreat from the dollar and invest in gold. With the quantitative forex models suggesting persistent inflationary pressure, gold remains a top asset. The MACD and RSI indicate strong volume and momentum, supporting the bullish outlook for gold. Analysts are now projecting gold could reach $3,000/oz by March, driven by economic uncertainties.
Silver: Poised for Growth
Silver follows gold’s upward trend, although more modestly. As gold continues to rise, regulated MetaTrader platforms provide a secure trading environment for silver. The MACD and RSI show solid buying momentum, reinforcing the expectation for further increases in silver prices as gold’s strength carries over.
DXY: The Dollar’s Gap and Potential Moves
The DXY index filled its gap and is expected to continue its upward trajectory. However, due to the volatility driven by Trump’s trade decisions, interpreting the dollar’s movement requires patience. Traders might explore forex scalping automation techniques to capitalize on short-term fluctuations in the dollar’s value.
GBPUSD: Bullish Signals Amidst Bearish Bias
The British Pound has shown a recovery, though it remains in a bearish phase. The MACD shows buying momentum, but the RSI and EMA200 suggest caution. Traders using compounding forex profits strategies can benefit by anticipating further downward movement before potential consolidation.
AUDUSD: Rate Cut Concerns and Market Optimism
The Australian Dollar is testing previous highs, driven by optimism from tariff delays. However, expectations of future rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia could limit any sustained growth. The MACD and RSI show increased buying momentum, but forex scalping automation strategies may be more effective here due to the short-term nature of the moves.
NZDUSD: Resilience in Bearish Markets
The Kiwi Dollar is showing strength, but with rate cuts expected from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, overall market bias remains bearish. The quantitative forex models reflect the pressure on the NZD, which is being kept in check by broader economic factors, including ongoing trade disputes.
EURUSD: Euro Faces Selling Pressure
The Euro has shown some bullish momentum but remains unable to recover earlier losses. Hedging with multiple currencies may be an effective strategy here, as the market continues to show a preference for selling the Euro amid ongoing trade concerns.
USDJPY: Yen Capitalizes on Dollar Weakness
The Yen continues to benefit from dollar weakness, but analysts warn that tightening alone may not drive significant appreciation. The MACD and RSI show increased momentum, and compounding forex profits could be a useful strategy to capitalize on the Yen’s strength in this volatile period.
USDCHF: Bearish Momentum Continues
The Swiss Franc shows continued bearish momentum, with both the MACD and RSI indicating further downside pressure. As a result, traders may prefer regulated MetaTrader platforms for precise entries and exits in this relatively stable market.
USDCAD: Recovery or Consolidation?
The Canadian Dollar has tested its lower boundaries following Trump’s tariff delays. While there is potential for short-term consolidation, hedging with multiple currencies can help mitigate risks as the market waits for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve.
COT REPORT ANALYSIS
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – WEAK (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – WEAK (4/5)
- JPY – WEAK (1/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)